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Can we achieve ‘net zero’ migration? Is ‘flatpack’ building the way to make housing cheaper? Should the old upskill the young? Do we have enough carers? Should we abolish HNWs?
These are just a few of the questions States Members grappled with last week during an open debate on problems caused by Jersey’s growing population, which currently sits around 108,000, and the potential ways to solve them.
Ahead of the debate, the Government produced a report outlining facts, figures and some of its main conundrums.
“Government currently supports organisations such as Jersey Business, Digital Jersey and Visit Jersey to develop new businesses, encourage new skills to the island, and to increase the annual number of visitors to the island to 1 million by 2030. At a time of almost full employment in Jersey the supporting skills and labour to achieve these aims and expansions are only likely to be achieved through inward migration,” it read.
However, while this expansion might help the island become more prosperous, the report explained how it also puts pressure on resources, particularly housing, and means that the number of older people Jersey will have to care for in future will be much greater, and therefore costlier to the public.
And that expansion has been far quicker than anyone predicted.
When the last island plan was prepared, it predicted around 800 newcomers per year, when the reality has stood at more than 1,000.
The average increase in the resident population during the four-year period (2016 to 2019 inclusive) at 1,300 per year, is around three times that at the start of the previous decade (2001 to 2004: 400 per year).
The ideas put forward by politicians on how to address this during last Thursday’s open debate will now be gathered up by Assistant Chief Minister, Deputy Rowland Huelin, who has responsibility for population, and compiled into a policy for managing the island’s growth over the coming decades due to be put forward this October.
Here, Express summarises the key themes of the debate…
Former Environment Minister Deputy Steve Luce was clear that, in his view, solving the challenges of Jersey’s growing population would not be as simple as cutting numbers.
In fact, he went so far as to describe depopulation “the thing that terrifies me the most”, given the increasing numbers of older people in Jersey and the fact those individuals “need to be looked after."
“…To people who say, ‘We need to be back at 100,000, there’s too many people living on the island, I say, ‘I accept your argument that 100,000 is the target model, but you tell me which six or seven people get on the boat in the morning.’
“And that’s where the argument falls down – we cannot unfortunately reduce the population of the island…it would be a terrible thing to happen and I know there’s pressures and challenges from an increasing population, but they are by far the best challenges you can have.”
Deputy Luce later emphasised that Jersey should be cautious in bringing in any concept of a population cap, as the pandemic’s impact on travel has already masked the impact of Brexit on immigration and the subsequent hit to local industries, such as hospitality. “Putting a number on it so soon with all the unknowns, I’d be wary of.”
Pictured: Deputy Luce said we don't yet have an accurate view of how Brexit has impacted industries like hospitality.
Economic Development Minister Senator Lyndon Farnham was similarly concerned about the idea of a population cap, noting: “As soon as a population stops growing, it starts shrinking, and that brings a whole load of new problems.”
He said that growing was “not a bad thing”, so long as it is managed carefully, emphasising the importance of labour for the frontlines of Jersey’s tourism, retail and agricultural sectors.
His Assistant Minister, Deputy Kirsten Morel, said he was concerned that any failure to control population growth may ultimately lead to the “complete urbanization” of the island.
If the “population conundrum” isn’t controlled, he said “at some point there’ll be no green space left in the island, at some point there’ll be no woods left, there’ll be no fields left, there’ll be housing up to the beaches.”
Pictured: Deputy Morel painted a picture of "complete urbanisation" in Jersey if population growth is not controlled properly.
Deputy Morel said he felt that the idea “you need people to be constantly growing your economy” was a “20th century” way of thinking, and that, in fact, Jersey was in a “transition period” where it might be possible to make the most of productivity enhancing tools to work towards “net zero population growth” – something he said he had initially been skeptical of, but now accepted was a possible solution.
St. Mary Deputy David Johnson also evoked the pressure on resources brought by population growth. He spoke of an earlier warning from the Construction Council about “overheating” of their sector, when demand becomes excessive, and a possible water shortage mentioned in the 2019 Jersey Farming Conference.
For the Health Minister, Deputy Richard Renouf, the concept of a “net zero” migration model was a “chimera” and a “quest that is sought after as a panacea for our island” when really “we need not be terrified by population growth.”
He said he felt fears about such growth were the result of individuals with a fixed vision of a Jersey they are “used to” and “comfortable” in struggling to adapt to change.
Pictured: Deputy Renouf said immigration had contributed to Jersey's heritage and culture.
Deputy Renouf explained that the island first underwent big changes with the arrivals of the French Huguenots – now “valued Jersey families” – and again when English settlers arrived after steamboat travel became a regular service.
While these individuals may have faced “hostility” at the time, he said it was now accepted that their “ideas, vibrancy, industry and commerce” ultimately “fashioned our present culture.”
This emphasis on Jersey's heritage was echoed by St. Brelade's Deputy Montfort Tadier.
Whether Jersey’s population increases or not, projections show that the island’s over-65 population is going to grow significantly in the coming years – and with that brings the question of care and cost.
Many States Members referenced this as a key concern, and spoke of the need to have more homegrown carers.
Among those to raise the issue of Jersey’s ageing population was Deputy Morel, who described the island’s state pension system as “quite simply a Ponzi scheme”.
“It is paying out for today’s retired people from the wages earned by today’s working people. That means as our retired population grows, you need more and more workers in the island to pay… If you want to move to net zero population growth, you’re going to have to completely restructure the pension system.”
A report shared with the States Assembly in advance of the debate explained how, if the island’s population rose by just 325 people per year, the fund would be exhausted n around 60 years if Social Security contributions did not increase.
“To maintain an old age pension, it would be necessary to increase contribution rates at some point to maintain a viable Fund. For example, if the Fund was allowed to reduce to zero, the contribution rate would need to increase from 10.5% to 13.1% to maintain the current level of benefits (in real terms),” the report explained.
Social Security Minister Deputy Judy Martin suggested there needed to be a cultural shift in islanders’ thinking where they didn’t equate the island’s pensionable age with a need to stop working.
Pictured: Jersey is going to need more carers to deal with the ageing population.
She suggested that there was a “wealth of older people who want to carry on working”, and that perhaps some of them could spend their later years passing on their skills to others – an idea also referenced by former Education Minister, Senator Tracey Vallois.
“Don’t think you’re passed your sell-by date at a certain age,” Deputy Martin said.
The problem of Jersey’s increasing older population was also linked to younger people’s inability to get their foot on the local property ladder – something contributing to a brain drain of fresh Jersey talent.
The current Island Plan published in 2011 included provision for 4,000 new homes over a ten-year period – a capacity intended to be achieved with 400 new homes built each year. However, the population has grown much faster than anticipated in the plan and a report commissioned by the Government released in 2019 said that, at current rates, Jersey should expect to need 7,000 new homes by 2030.
And it doesn't look like house prices are going to ease anytime soon either.
St. Ouen Constable Richard Buchanan candidly explained how he felt people like himself to be part of the problem.
A typical story for many, he explained how he had come to the island in the 60s, marrying a local girl, working in finance, and purchasing a home for a “five-figure sum”.
Emphasising how market prices had gone up “ridiculously”, he said that his home was now worth a “very large six-figure sum”, while it was a very different scenario for one of his children, who he had to help get on the property ladder.
Constable Buchanan explained that, were he not elected as a States Member upon his retirement, he would have been a “non-productive unit” in society”, who was “taking up a house without contributing to the economy”.
Deputy Morel suggested that the Government should look at ways of incentivising older people to downsize, explaining how some parishioners had suggested an initiative whereby older individuals could sell their homes to the Government with 10 to 15 years’ lifetime enjoyment of their properties, which the Government would then have as available housing stock later on.
Former Housing Minister and Reform Jersey leader Senator Sam Mézec said he felt the solution lay in taxing empty homes – of which there are believed to be around 3,000 in Jersey – to give investors simply using the homes as “a commodity to make money out of” an incentive to put them on the market rather than waiting for their value to appreciate.
Deputy Luce and St. Mary Constable John Le Bailly, however, felt one of the key problems to be with the affordability of housing, saying that the Government should perhaps look to use or endorse “flatpack” – otherwise known as “pre-fab” or “modular” housing – as a way of bringing down construction costs, and in turn the overall price of homes.
Pictured: Could flatpack construction methods be a way forward?
Deputy Luce also urged the Government consider changing planning laws to address the idea of ‘land banking’ – where someone gains planning approval for accommodation, but fails to act until the plans become more valuable. He said that, as Environment Minister, he remembered finding out that there were more than 1,000 units of accommodation that had been approved but not built and that he subsequently reduced the time limit on planning approval from five to three years.
St. Saviour Constable Sadie Le Sueur-Rennard mentioned that some workplaces offer accommodation as part of their job package to those relocating to the island, and wondered if the same could be done for returning locals.
Meanwhile, Deputy Montfort Tadier told States Members to be careful what they wish for, warning that increasing available housing might actually drive growth of the population, which currently stands around 108,000, because of the extra capacity in the market.
While Constable Le Bailly was clear that housing would be a key “incentive” to retain young talent on-island, he also suggested that there were cultural issues to address, saying it appeared to him that some local unemployed people found some roles “beneath them” to work in.
The Social Security Minister also questioned “who’s going to do the dirty work” and the “real nitty gritty” when it comes to caring for older generations.
Reform’s Deputy Rob Ward said he felt solving part of the skills shortage would lie in ending the “false dichotomy” between the academic and the vocational world.
Pictured: Vocational education should be valued as highly as the academic, according to Deputy Rob Ward.
Senator Sarah Ferguson pondered whether the island could offer more training opportunities in niche areas, such as encouraging young women to get into engineering.
Senator Vallois said that, during consultations held with students in her time as Education Minister, it was clear that young people were concerned over the “lack of choice” in their schools. She said she felt it was important that a “Skills Audit” of the island be undertaken to fully understand where the gaps are in what training is being offered locally.
Senator Kristina Moore said that the Government should consider funding more post-graduate qualifications to encourage the strengthening and broadening of local skills.
Senator Farnham, meanwhile, suggested that ensuring that the island had “good infrastructure” and “good 21st century working environments” would be a draw for top talent.
Productivity – the value to the economy of each person’s effort – has been dropping steadily since 2007.
While research has shown that this has largely been driven by decline in the finance sector, a report presented to States Members said that “Easy access to migrant workers over this period, particularly for some of the low productivity sectors, may have encouraged some businesses to continue to rely on a supply of lower paid migrants rather than investing in new working practices or using technology to become more productive.”
Deputy Morel suggested that the island could perhaps ask businesses that apply for work permits for individuals to submit a ‘productivity plan’ at the same time to show the value the recruitment would bring.
Senator Moore dwelled on how businesses could employ AI and other digital solutions to not only make themselves more productive, but improve the quality of life for employees. She gave the example of an “exemplary” local hospitality business which had used the savings achieved through employing technology to pay its workers a Living Wage.
“We ought to be encouraging other parts of that sector and other sectors to follow suit,” she said.
Many speakers during the debate felt that the issues that needed to be addressed in coming up with a population policy for Jersey ran far deeper than mere talk of skills and housing shortages and migration controls.
Multiple individuals described Jersey’s tax system as “broken”, including Senator Mézec, who said the high-net-worth immigration system – which allows wealthy individuals to secure residence in Jersey if they agree to pay a certain amount of tax – had had a “distorting” economic impact.
Pictured: Senator Mézec said HNW individuals were having a "distorting" impact on Jersey's economy.
He said the island should look towards a tax system that didn’t rely on individuals “who come to the island and boast about the tax that they pay here that they otherwise wouldn’t be paying as if it’s something to be proud of.”
Deputy John Young, who moved to Jersey 40 years ago and explained the “transformation” he had witnessed, said he felt the current system was resulting in a situation of “massive inequality” – something that any new population policy should take account of.
Deputy Judy Martin wondered whether, to maintain low levels of migration, islanders would be wiling to take on a “small increase” in tax and Social Security.
Deputy Morel suggested that the island needed a different “economic paradigm” and that maybe the key to managing the island’s population was to prioritise “wellbeing and happiness” instead of “constantly trying to attract more and more capital”.
Senator Vallois agreed with the sentiment, suggesting that the Government should gather data to understand what quality of life the public really wanted.
St. Saviour’s Deputy Louise Doublet said that the concepts of community, fairness, equality and green spaces – concepts all linked to islanders’ wellbeing - should be among the highest priorities when developing a population policy.
Pictured: Deputy Doublet said the policy should consider the value of green spaces to the island.
She also reflected on whether a move towards a four-day working week could be a step forward. Not only could this potentially increase productivity, as some jurisdictions have observed, but may help with care for the elderly population, as families will have more time to look after them.
With the most to gain and lose from any decisions made about the island’s future population, Senator Vallois said it was crucial that young people’s voices had a significant place in the decision-making process.
In concluding the debate, Deputy Rowland Huelin acknowledged “we haven’t put enough emphasis on young people’s voices… I’ll take the metaphorical slap on the wrist for that”, before pledging he would make sure that this was addressed before a new population policy was put forward.
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