It’s official: people are leaving Guernsey

Tuesday 31 March 2015

Guernsey’s population has been falling for two years because people are packing up and leaving the island.

A new official Census reveals that the total population of Guernsey fell by 96 people in the year to 31 March 2014, following a drop of 353 in the previous 12 months.

In the last two years the main change in the population has been migration – basically, more people are choosing to leave the island and live somewhere else than are choosing to go and live there.

The position in Guernsey is in stark difference to Jersey, where the States have pretty much given up trying to control immigration. The States target is for an overall immigration figure of 325 per year, or the number of people coming in being up to 325 more than the number going out.

But in practice, that target has never once been reached – the average has been newcomers outnumbering outgoers by 525.

Despite that, politicians here agreed last year to give the existing target of 325 another two years, to kick the whole issue on past the 2014 elections.

By comparison, Guernsey saw the flow of people coming and going creating an overall effect of 197 leaving the island last year, and 464 the year before.

The figures are included in an electronic Census report, which the island’s Policy Council – their version of the Council of Ministers - has commissioned, and which has been published this morning. The council say that the rolling annual Census will provide better information on which to base policy decisions.

The data also shows that at the end of last March, Guernsey’s population stood at 62,711 – although their island is much more densely populated than ours, with 962 people per square kilometer compared to our 819. The island’s “dependency ratio” was 0.53, meaning that for every 100 islanders of working age, there were 53 aged either below 16 or over 65. That ratio is expected to increase to 0.82 by 2060.

Guernsey also has exactly the same proportion of locally-born people as Jersey – 49.9%, meaning that most people there come from somewhere else.

When it comes to gender, there are more females in Guernsey than males. In March 2014, females made up 50.6% of the population while males accounted for 49.4%. Typically more boys are born in the island than girls but females have a longer average life-span.