Population policy suffers major setback

Monday 08 July 2019

A draft policy to control Jersey’s rising population has hit a major roadblock, after it emerged a key piece of research about migrants’ economic value due to underpin it would be too difficult and costly to carry out.

The Migration Policy Development Board – a panel made up of politicians and citizens tasked with advising on the island’s new policy on population – has had an early setback after hopes of commissioning a major piece of work to inform their recommendations have been scuppered.

According to the Chief Minister, independent analysis on the cost and benefit of individuals arriving and leaving Jersey compiled by Statistics Jersey was due to be the foundation of the new policy to ensure it balances the island’s economic and business interests with pressures in areas like housing and health.

Explaining the important nature of the work, he previously told Express: "[Drafting a population policy] is a very complicated scenario – you’ve got all sorts of competing views in there. You’ve got one lot that says shut the door tomorrow, which causes ramifications, and another lot that would like a completely clear, no controls, let everyone in you need to.

"It is very complicated and something that needs to be looked at.the work I set going, one of the first decisions we made, was to request the statistics unit to go away and do an arms-length piece of work on the financial impact versus the contributions they make… It’s about getting it right and doing it long-term. Get the structures correct."

Pictured: The Policy Development Board's work is being reviewed by the Corporate Services Scrutiny Panel.

But now it’s emerged that crucial research won’t be possible to carry out - little more than a week after Jersey’s population was found to have risen by over 1,000 in a year to more than 106,000, and months after it was revealed that 7,000 new homes would be needed by 2030 to keep up with demand.

The revelation came from the Migration Policy Board – a panel created by Senator Le Fondré to lead population policy development – as they were grilled last week by a group of politicians that has decided to review the progress of the population policy.

At the hearing, Policy Principal for Immigration and Migration Neil Stocks told the Scrutiny Panel: “The advice has come back from the Statistics Jersey Unit… that it’s a very, very difficult piece of work, that it would require large investment and they’re not able to do that.”

He also suggested that if that work was commissioned, it is “likely something that would have to go out to… a consultant.”

Pictured: The latest Population estimates for 2018 were recently released.

Yet, the review board, the Corporate Services Scrutiny Panel, still want the principles of this analysis to be taken into account when making decisions on individual applications.

Facing a grilling from the Scrutineers, the Chairman of the Policy Development Board Constable Chris Taylor was asked: “How is benefit to the island measured?” The discussion then circled back to the question of monitoring economic contributions without this crucial piece of statistical work.

Deputy Jess Perchard asked: “It takes me back to the question of economic measuring because, as we established earlier, Statistics Jersey have got back to us and said that it is not feasible to calculate the economic impact of an individual person coming in or leaving. You are saying we need to be able to do that. How are we going to be able to do that?”

Mr Stocks intervened, saying: “I can answer. It is extremely difficult is the short answer, not just in Jersey, but worldwide there are lots of papers out and the U.K. have just recently issued a paper - I can forward it to you - about calculating the cost of a migrant and their advice and trying to calculate the cost of the migrant from the day they arrive to the day that they are either deceased or leave the country. 

“Obviously you have got a lot to take in, as in come in as a single individual, to come into a relationship, have children who then go into education and take money out of the system, but then what do those children end up doing with the good education that they get? In the round it is very, very difficult to come up with [the] financial value of a migrant in any jurisdiction." 

Pictured: The Board aims to find a balance between the needs of local businesses and housing pressures.

Elsewhere in the hearing, what was previously referred to as the Board’s ‘Interim Report’ to be published this Autumn is in fact a consultation paper which will go out to stakeholders for feedback towards the end of the year.

Constable Taylor said that the original timeline for the policy had to be pushed back slightly due to the postponement of Brexit and the Board’s final report is due in quarter one of next year.

The members of the Scrutiny board asked many questions about whether they have taken different factors into consideration when drafting the policy, including on the topic of integration and English language assessments.

This later prompted Sue Duhamel Director of Policy and Strategy for Performance and Population to say: “Your questions are all really good questions, but they are perhaps a wee bit premature for the board to be able to make judgments on them just yet. 

“In particular what we are doing is lots of research at the minute to kind of identify what could you do, how much would it cost to administer, what would the impact be and could you measure it. These are all absolutely the questions that we are currently asking.”

In terms of examples from other jurisdictions, Mr Stocks said that they had been looking to Canada, New Zealand, Australia, Bermuda, Barbados and Guernsey and that it is the task of the Board to consider “how relevant those are to Jersey because of the relatively unique position that Jersey finds itself in.”

While Scrutiny panels usually focus on reviewing finished government proposals, the Corporate Services Scrutiny Panel has decided to review of the population policy during its development stage. This work, the panel says, will culminate in a report detailing the areas they believe the government should be focusing on, containing a series of recommendations.

Speaking to Express, Deputy Jess Perchard explained that the approach was intended to be "proactive" and followed examples set by the House of Commons.

But Senator Le Fondré, who led and chaired numerous Scrutiny panels before becoming Chief Minister, had a more sceptical view: “When we were there, it was very clear that we didn’t come up with alternative policy – we were there to scrutinise the policy that ministers put forward. Could it potentially cause confusion? That will depend how they handle it.”