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The Government has published its long-awaited population policy, which proposes “progressively reducing the island’s reliance on net inward migration” - but fails to say how that will work in practice.
Instead, it says detailed questions - such as what Jersey’s population should be, how many migrants should be allowed to live in the island and what industries those people should work in - should be left to another day, when the Government has developed computer systems to capture enough data to answer them.
The Government anticipates that it will have the data in place by 2025 – although it does not yet know how much it cost. After that, it wants the next Council of Ministers to come up with a detailed plan.
“Given the current lack of robust data and the significant areas where action is needed to develop a coherent population policy, Ministers have concluded that it is premature to set any specific population target, including a nil net target,” the ‘Common Population Policy’ says.
The policy also proposes that population should be a feature of the annual Government Plan and each Council of Ministers will be legally obliged to agree a detailed population policy every term, so every four years.
Pictured: How Jersey's population has increased over the last 20 years, which many islanders believe is unsustainable according to surveys.
It says: “The Council of Ministers considers that the aim of its Common Population Policy should be to achieve a stable population position for Jersey, where reliance on inward migration has been significantly reduced in the longer term.
“The target date for achieving population stability will be set during the term of the next Council of Ministers, and subsequent Councils will publish details of their progress towards the stability target at least once during their term of office.
“It is envisaged that by 2025 data collection and analysis will be sufficiently advanced to make a meaningful, evidence-based forecast.
However, the policy does set out some clearer objectives. It says, for instance, that “subject to the outcome of actuarial reviews next year, ministers suggest an extension to the pension age should be considered.”
It adds, “subject to an appropriate technology platform being available, ministers propose that a robust and secure digital ID system is introduced.”
Pictured: Assistant Chief Minister Rowland Huelin has been in charge of developing the Common Population Policy.
Broadly, the policy establishes that the current and subsequent Government’s aim should be focus on developing the capacity to work of people already in Jersey.
This includes encouraging older people to work if they want to, retraining people in skills that are needed, encouraging islanders back to the island and far greater use of technology.
“Up to a third of jobs that exist today could be lost to automation by 2035,” it points out, adding that the Government will need to support retraining of those in process-driven sectors such as compliance and the clerical side of the trust industry.
Without making firm proposals, the policy suggests that the island’s tax system will have to evolve with a changing population, perhaps taxing automated activity and people living outside of Jersey but who work remotely for Jersey businesses.
Assistant Chief Minister Rowland Huelin, who has developed the policy said: “There are no silver bullets to solve the population dilemma, but it affects every one of us, so we must confront these challenges head-on together.
“We must prioritise education, skills and lifelong learning to ensure that our citizens are equipped to do the jobs that local businesses are going to need, and grow our talent pipeline for the future.
“We must look forward, to a time when jobs that exist today may be lost to automation and new skills will be required.
“We will also concentrate on reducing reliance on our migrant workforce by maximising the contribution of the people who are already here, through improvements in productivity, increased workforce participation and the adoption of new technology.”
He added: “Truly reducing the Island’s reliance on net inward migration as part of a sustainable population policy requires a joined-up approach across all ministerial areas of responsibility.
“This policy identifies initiatives which are already advancing this aim and suggests areas for further development and action.
“Our aim is to set broad principles, viewed through the lens of population, to help in the goal of achieving a stable and sustainable population for future generations.”
The Common Population Policy will be debated by the States Assembly on 8 February.
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