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Jersey could be battered by intense and destructive storms this winter – but it’s not necessarily down to the “El Niño” weather phenomenon affecting other parts of the world.
The Jersey Met Office say that there’s a chance that this winter's storms will be heavier – but that’s down to the fact that the air is warmer this year, and can hold more water.
The UK national media have been playing up the impact of El Niño – a periodic weather phenomenon that starts with warm weather in the central Pacific and then spreads out from there.
But John Searson from the Jersey Met Office says that they are not forecasting stronger storms at the moment – current forecasts are for November to stay dry for a while at least - and even if the storms are more powerful, they might not necessarily hit Jersey.
He said: “There is no direct link that is scientifically accepted between ‘El Niño’ weather and the weather in the UK, so we cannot say that an ‘El Niño’ warming this year will mean that we are going to have the same weather that we had the last time around.
“It would be wrong to suggest that.
“We are now entering into a warm period, because the air is much warmer around the British Isles at the moment than it would normally be.
“Because of that it can hold more moisture, and as a consequence of holding more water, if we do get a major storm that comes through it has the potential to become more dynamic or more destructive with stronger winds.”
A recent blog from the UK Met Office said that the current ‘El Niño’ cycle looked likely to be the strongest on record – but it also made the point that the effects of that phenomenon here are “relatively subtle”.
The UK Met Office is forecasting a winter that is milder and wetter than usual, with an increased chance of windy or stormy weather.
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