“There are things that might change over these four months”

Thursday 25 July 2019

The Jersey government’s ambitious proposals to improve health, housing, schools and support the economy over the next four years may have to be scaled back, if the new Prime Minister allows Britain to crash out of the EU.

The new Government Plan – a roadmap for how the Council of Ministers plan to shape the island between 2020 and 2023 – was published this week.

It included plans for £91million investment in schools, the future hospital project, and cybersecurity among other projects, as well as a £10million affordable housing scheme.

Pictured: The Government Plan, which was published this week.

It also suggested nearly £3million being spent on Brexit preparations over the next four years, and an £84million investment into the Stabilisation Fund – a back-up money pot in cases of economic crisis – over four years in order to weather the storm of Brexit, which poses a particular risk to the island’s largest sector, finance. 

But those plans won’t be debated and agreed on by politicians until 26 November – nearly one month after the Brexit deadline – which means they might have to be modified, according to Treasurer Richard Bell.

In a briefing ahead of the Government Plan’s reveal, he explained that the financial forecasts underpinning the plan were based on economic assumptions that could change, as the possibility of ‘no deal’ becomes increasingly likely. 

“We are working on scenarios in the background in the case of a day one no deal Brexit… This plan sits with Scrutiny and out for public consultation for over four months – there are things that might change over those four months,” Mr Bell warned.

Pictured: Richard Bell, the Government of Jersey's Treasurer. 

However, he said that the latest inflation figures didn’t give the government for concern “just yet”. 

Brussels are unlikely to agree to significant changes to the exit proposals already on the table, but newly-appointed Prime Minister Boris Johnson last night hinted that, if that’s the case, he would be willing to go without. 

“The buck stops here,” he said in his first speech in his new role. “We are going to fulfil the repeated promises of parliament to the people and come out of the EU on 31 October – no ifs or buts.”

In a letter of congratulations to Mr Johnson, Guernsey’s Chief Minister Gavin St. Pier embedded a ‘no deal’ warning: “I would like to take the opportunity to reaffirm Guernsey’s position that a disorderly exit from the EU would not be in Guernsey’s interests.”

Jersey’s Chief Minister Senator John Le Fondré and External Relations Minister Senator Ian Gorst sent their well wishes to the Prime Minister on Twitter without such caution. 

On behalf of @GovJersey, I want to congratulate @BorisJohnson on his election as Leader of the Conservative Party. I am confident #JerseyCI's strong relationship with the UK will continue under his leadership and that our interests will continue to be understood and represented.

— John Le Fondre (@John_Le_Fondre) July 23, 2019

However, a Brexit update report by Senator Gorst published last week clearly showed the unease within government over the current circumstances.

He described recent months as having been “dominated by uncertainty”, adding: “Nor does such uncertainty show signs of abating in the near future.”

The Minister nonetheless pledged that Jersey “does not intend to be a bystander to these events”, with his report detailing a keenness to continue meeting with UK officials to ensure the Crown Dependencies’ interests are upheld, as well as work to strengthen the island’s trading position in future.

Of the latter, Senator Gorst explained: “Having secured the future of the tariff-free trade relationship that the Island enjoys with the UK, I am pleased to report that the longstanding Government objective of securing World Trade Organisation (“WTO”) extension has also progressed significantly over the last 6 months. Officials are in regular contact with their counterparts in the UK, and are close to finalising arrangements to underpin our membership of the WTO.

“Such an achievement will further Jersey’s global outreach and ability to engage with countries around the world, placing the Island in a stronger position when the UK leaves the EU.”

Pictured top: New Prime Minister Boris Johnson. (PA)