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Jersey's covid policy is now essentially that the extent of the vaccination programme will prevent the virus from being that bad.
Taking a step back, the last 16 months have been all about buying time for vaccines to be developed, approved and jabbed into as many arms as possible. Could that be done before the number of serious cases overwhelmed the health service?
It’s been a confusing and deeply distressing time – but buying time has been the whole point. Buying time, to get us to last night.
This weekend, with local case numbers spiralling, and the track and trace system for direct contacts failing, the hands of Ministers were forced, and the isolation system was abandoned for all but actual cases and some travellers.
Pictured: Chief Minister, John Le Fondré, announcing the decision to relax the isolation rules for direct contacts.
Even if you have spent time closely with a confirmed case, you can now go about your life as you choose as long as you have no symptoms, until you get your own positive test result. Cases will clearly spiral, particularly among those who have not yet had the opportunity for both vaccinations – but we’re told that number is now less important, thanks to vaccinations, than the number actually being treated in hospital.
The gamble is this: have enough people, and in the right categories, been vaccinated to prevent large numbers of serious cases. Will the vaccines do their job?
I use the word “gamble” as, with covid, we just don’t have sufficient data yet to know for sure – Ministers will prefer words like a “proportionate” response to a “dynamic” situation. But what do those fine words actually mean?
The fact is that this weekend the track and trace system crashed – were Ministers told that it simply couldn’t cope with the volume of contacts it was now being asked to handle; and that’s really why this announcement came earlier than expected?
The obvious inconsistencies provide some evidence for the policy being rushed out.
Pictured: Dr Ivan Muscat says the key number is now the number of people being admitted to hospital for covid treatment.
Firstly, despite having close contact with a covid case, a person can now freely go about their business, mixing with anyone they like, inside or outside, until they get a positive test – just as long as they don’t stand at the bar to have a drink.
Secondly, if you are already living in Jersey you don’t need to isolate if you have no symptoms, even if your partner has confirmed covid, and you have never been vaccinated; if you fly into Jersey as a visitor, you do have to isolate, even if you are double jabbed and have never met anyone with covid.
Thirdly, whether you are vaccinated or not now has no direct relevance to whether you need to isolate, having been in contact with a definite case - you don't, as long as you have no symptoms. Will that act as a disincentive to get islanders through the vaccination programme?
Fourthly, Jersey billing itself as a ‘covid-safe’ holiday destination may now need some urgent revision. Ministers are very clear that cases are on the rise, as restrictions are released.
Sunday night felt like that moment when the dam bursts; the line is breached; the crowd burst through the cordon; with track and trace failing, it looked like Ministers kicking for the finish.
Many will warmly welcome that, confident that the vaccines are effective in preventing serious illness, and have now reached enough people.
For others, particularly the vulnerable, and all those people who have not yet been offered both jabs, it may seem like a premature capitulation, as case numbers rapidly rise.
Our relationship with covid has entered a new phase, one that will severely test the efficacy of the vaccines, and brutally expose any deficiencies in them.
With the tide of restrictions rapidly now receding, washing away with it the fine words about 'world-beating' systems, we will see what really lies beneath.
Ministers see firm foundations built on the rocks of Pfizer, Moderna and Astra-Zeneca. Let’s hope they’re right.
