The Committee is projecting that in a few years’ time there will be a shortfall in States’ finances of up to £85million a year, largely as a result of long-term demographic changes, such as people having fewer children and living longer.

It says GST is a better way of dealing with the shortfall than raising income tax and social security contributions or making swingeing cuts in public spending.

Deputy Charles Parkinson, a former Treasury Minister himself, told an Express podcast this week that Deputy Helyar and the other members of the Committee should resign if their flagship tax policy is defeated in a States’ debate on tax and spending expected this summer. You can listen to the podcast HERE.

Policy & Resources Committee

Pictured: The members of the Policy & Resources Committee, who are preparing another round of tax proposals for a States’ debate this summer.

Asked whether he would walk away in those circumstances, Deputy Helyar said last night: “I very much doubt it.

“There are not many other answers to these questions and the States will have a full opportunity to debate them, to amend them and to do as they wish. It’s not my decision when it comes down to it. This is the Assembly’s decision. All we can do is make sure we’ve done the work thoroughly.”

Express’ enquiries of other deputies indicate that the Committee has made almost no headway in securing more political support for GST since a States’ debate in October when it asked for approval in principle and then had to withdraw the proposal when it became clear that it would be heavily defeated if pushed to a vote.

But Deputy Helyar rejects suggestions that convincing a majority of States’ members to support the Committee’s tax plan is already a lost cause.

“I think it’s difficult to say that because you haven’t seen the policy letter yet. When you see the policy letter, it may be constructed in a way which gives States’ members the opportunity [to support],” said Deputy Helyar.

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Pictured: Deputy Mark Helyar thinks it is premature to write off his chances of steering GST through the States’ Assembly later this year.

“We can change everybody that is sat here and this problem is going to be exactly the same one next week or next month or in five years’ time. It does need to be dealt with.

“It’s not easy and it’s definitely not popular. I can understand why States’ members would not want to put their heads above the parapet because of that unpopularity. Nevertheless, this is a problem which needs to be dealt with.”

Deputy Helyar was speaking at a briefing in the theatre at Candie to launch a public campaign to explain his case for the introduction of GST alongside other tax changes which he said would mostly benefit poorer households. You can read more about the public campaign HERE.

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Pictured: The panel at last night’s briefing on tax policy was (l to r) Mark Thompson, a non-voting member of the Committee for Employment & Social Security, Deputy Mark Helyar, Deputy Peter Roffey and Bethan Haines, States’ Treasurer. 

“This isn’t a one day campaign. It’s over several months. As I said at the outset, getting over what the issues are that need to be managed is actually probably a large part of the issue itself and a large part of the reason why we’re doing this,” he said.

“We need to be able to convey what the problem is that we’re trying to solve. There are lots of tropes out there about too many civil servants and they’re all overpaid and we can just cut services. It simply isn’t true I’m afraid.

“Most of the pressure that we have on costs will come from additional nursing staff and elderly care and things like additional drugs and pensions – pensions in particular.

“Having everybody in the island understanding that we face a real dilemma is an important part of the argument. What tax we use to fill that gap is almost a separate issue. Being able to explain the problem is a really important part of it.”

The likelihood of States’ spending soon exceeding income as a result of demographic changes has been highlighted for many years. Projections that the annual deficit could be around £80million first appeared publicly in 2019.

Despite this, Deputy Helyar stood at the 2020 general election strongly opposing any tax increases.

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Pictured: Deputy Mark Helyar enjoyed a successful campaign at the general election of 2020, polling in fourth place having stood on a platform against tax rises because they would “let the genie out of the bottle”.

At that time, Deputy Helyar said: “I believe if we start down the path to higher taxation, we will see business opportunity reduce and costs rise in all areas.

“History tells us that in almost every jurisdiction, once a new tax is introduced, it never goes away. Once we put our taxes up, we will have let the genie out of the bottle.”

The Guernsey Party, which Deputy Helyar leads in the States, fielded candidates at the election on a platform of “aim[ing] for no tax increases during the next term – no GST – maintain low taxation to be internationally competitive”.

Therefore, Express asked Deputy Helyar whether he had contributed to public opposition to tax increases and widely-held views about unnecessary States’ spending and a bloated bureaucracy.

“I’m not here to answer party political questions. I’m here on behalf of the Policy & Resources Committee,” said Deputy Helyar.

 

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Pictured: The Policy & Resources Committee is embarking on a programme of public events to explain why it is proposing GST and other measures to address a projected deficit of £85million a year in States’ finances. 

More Express coverage of last night’s tax briefing:

“Essential services at risk” if States don’t raise more tax

States’ leaders insist GST can be made fair as well as raising millions