“This increase in outturn is a result of both median earnings rising faster than anticipated and employment levels increasing,” said P&R.
“The improvement in ETI income alone is likely to mean an additional £10m against the budgeted position.”
The Committee said other areas of income tax are also doing better than expected.
“The overall improved position means the projected surplus for 2023 is now around £24m after allowing for proceeds from the sale of property and allowing for the loss at Guernsey Ports,” continued P&R.
“However, as reflected in the 2023 Budget, this is a revenue surplus position only and does not reflect either returns on investment or the cost of required spend on Guernsey infrastructure. After taking account of investment returns and capital expenditure in line with the States’ target (2% of GDP), the forecast position for 2023 would still be a deficit, albeit a reduced one of £20m.”
P&R has published the following graphics to highlight the current financial position as of July 2023:
