Is it time to raise the pension age? Should Jersey pay people to have children? Should we agree to grow our population to a target of 118,000? And how about resurrecting the long laughed-off idea of building a tunnel to France?
These were just some of the areas debated by Economic Development Minister Kirsten Morel and Social Security Minister Lyndsey Feltham as part of a live expert panel that aimed to examine Jersey’s population challenges, the government’s response, and the future vision for the island’s economy.
Around 100 Islanders, including students, current and former politicians, economy and recruitment experts, and new residents to the island, gave their thoughts to the discussion titled ‘Population… open the doors or pull up the drawbridge?’.
Chaired by Bailiwick Express and Connect editor Fiona Potigny and sponsored by Gr8 and Evelyn Partners, questions were submitted by the public and answered by the two ministers, as well as Chamber of Commerce CEO Murray Norton and Matt Falla, a director at Evelyn Partners and founder of Man Club.
Although there were no single solutions to such a vast and complex topic, one thing was clear from the discussion hosted by All Island Media at the Pomme D’Or Hotel: controlling population is not as simple as opening or closing any metaphorical drawbridge…
Should we pay people to have children?
Although the island’s population is around its highest levels ever, there are fewer children being born in Jersey than the level needed to sustain the population and economy without reliance on inward migration.
The issue is not a new area of concern to the panel, but one that underpinned a large area of the debate.
Just 151 births were recorded on the island in the first three months of this year, which was 13% lower than the number of births recorded in the same period of 2024.
In contrast, 256 deaths were recorded in the first quarter of this year – an increase of 15% on the previous year.
It is the third consecutive year that Jersey has seen more deaths than births.
But panel members were skeptical about the effectiveness of any government policies to increase birth rates, something which other developed nations struggling with low births have done in the past.
Arguing for the importance of making becoming a parent easier rather than incentivising Islanders to have children, Deputy Morel said the island must “stop pretending [government] can control birth rates”.
“No country, in my knowledge, has been able to increase its birth rate through government intervention,” he said.
Mr Norton was also in agreement about the feasibility and morality of government policies on having a family.
Instead, he pointed to issues such as the expense of raising children on the island as a potential barrier to parents having more than one child or not working, and the knock-on economic impact.
“We have some of the most expensive childcare anywhere,” he said.
“It’s comparable within inner London and stops people having children because it’s too expensive, and [parents] have to stay at home and not go to work.”
It comes after a proposition of 15 additional free hours a term for all two to three-year-olds in Jersey was unveiled in the 2026 Budget this week. If approved, it will start in January at the earliest.
Time to up the pension age again?
The term “ageing population” is also not a new concept, but the topic also formed a large basis for last night’s discussion.
Panel members discussed the difficulty of dealing with a yearly increase of pension-age islanders, such as healthcare costs, the decrease in economic input with more retired workers, and the importance of promoting part-time employment and purpose in later life.
But asked whether she would be in favour of raising the state pension, Deputy Feltham was in strong denial.
“I’m not in favour of raising the state pension age any further than what we’ve got planned at the moment as Social Security Minister,” she said.
Jersey’s state pension age is in the process of increasing from 65 to 67 by 2031, with the age increasing by two months each year until then.
In the meantime, with global improvements in healthcare and living standards, life expectancy in Jersey each year is on the rise.
Currently, life expectancy at birth between 2021 and 2023 was 84.9 years for females and 81.3 years for males in Jersey, according to the latest Public Health report.
Jersey’s average life expectancy is also above that in England and Wales, which was 81.3 years in 2023.
But with Jersey’s current living rates, an average pensioner would be receiving monthly state funds for almost two decades.
At the end of 2024, the number of people receiving an Old Age Pension was around 33,500 people – an increase of 1.5%.
While acknowledging the need to plan for the ageing demographic, Deputy Feltham instead suggested the need for individual choice for islanders that reach pension age.
“We should encourage people to think about continuing to work past what may have been a traditional pension age or retirement age,” she said.
“We know that it’s good for mental health. We know it’s good for physical health, and that is really good to encourage, but I don’t think we should integrate that with changing [the pension age].”
The Minister also emphasised that the island’s pension funds are “in an extremely healthy position” and better than other countries.
Tunnel talks return
In a surprise turn of events, one audience member raised the topic of allowing the building of a privately-funded tunnel connecting Jersey to France as a bold solution to the island’s future population, freight, and supply chain challenges.
The idea has caught the attention of many entrepreneurs and politicians in the past. Just last year, Guernsey entrepreneur Martyn Dorey presented his plans for an underground tunnel running from Guernsey to Jersey, and then on to France.
He likened how the Faroe Islands tunnel had benefited the archipelago and said that could be replicated in the Channel Islands.
Many on the panel were in agreement about the potential of a fixed link with the French border, noting similar infrastructure around the world in locations such as San Marino and plans for the Orkney Islands.
Deputy Kirsten Morel acknowledged that the conversation about a tunnel had been “knocked on the head” by the new government but argued it should be seriously considered.
“[A tunnel] is an entirely feasible and possible way forward,” he said.
But, Deputy Lindsay Feltham was cautious about the idea and argued that Jersey should focus on delivering current infrastructure projects like the new hospital and those in need of updating, such as the drainage network.
She also raised questions about the policy implications, such as the impact on the Common Travel Area and tax residency.
But, speaking strongly in favour of the concept, Murray Norton was clear that it was a realistic idea which could be achieved by the private sector.
“This has got nothing to do with government funding whatsoever. This is private industry that will fund this… When you go through it, when you pay your toll, it pays itself back. What they’re offering, private industry, is 6.5bn and they’ll have that money back within eight to 10 years,” he said.
“…It not only gives us access to a workforce where there’s high unemployment, it gives us access to skills, it gives us access to freight that would come in whether the boats were running or not, and it would mean that we get full supermarket shelves.
“There’s no reason why we should not be exploring it.”
Do we need a “North Star“?
Mr Norton also spoke about the importance of the government having a “North Star” – a clear, long-term goal or vision to guide Jersey’s future planning.
He said that rather than creating policies which seek to cap or control the workforce, Jersey needed to focus on creating a “sustainable” population, suggesting 116,000 to 118,000 as a possible aim for policymakers to work towards.
“We definitely do [need a North Star],” he said. “And once you have one, then you can decide what is needed and how best to do it. The conversation also can’t just be within government.”
Mr Norton added: “If that’s what we need to be sustainable, let’s have the honest conversation. That’s the population we need by 2040, so how are we going to get there?”
More news and analysis from the evening to follow… Keep an eye on Bailiwick Express and the Jersey Evening Post…