The Government recently spent £45,000 trying to answer those very questions.
Research commissioned from consultancy Oxera found that getting low-carbon electricity from France would be an economically “viable” way for the island to meet its decarbonisation targets by 2030, noting that delivering it cost-effectively with other technologies was more “uncertain” due to their different levels of development.
While acknowledging this, their research looked beyond simple “electrification” to alternative fuel sources, measuring their feasibility and practicality for Jersey, taking into account that it was “unlikely” Jersey would be able to produce any of these alone, and would likely have to import them.
Pictured: Opera established a potential timescale for introducing different technologies to the island.
Looking beyond 2030 towards the 2050 net-zero target, the researchers say there is a “high degree of uncertainty” around which of the three technologies it focuses on – biofuels, biogas and hydrogen – will actually become the alternative to fossil fuels.
While electrification is likely to become the dominant technology for lightweight vehicle use, such as passenger cars, heavy goods and long-distance transport will likely depend on the other options, as well as heating.
Short-term options:
- liquified biofuels could be used to blend with diesel and petrol for all vehicles on the road, as well as blends for aviation and boats;
- biofuels and biogas could be used for heating.
Long-term options:
- biogas (or biomethane) can be used to help decarbonise heavy goods vehicles.
- Higher blends of biofuel for refitted petrol cars.
- Local biogas production could also be an option.
- Hydrogen could be used for heavy goods vehicles, aviation, and shipping, and ‘hard-to-electrify’ sectors.
- Hydrogen could be a solution to heating.
Express breaks down Oxera’s findings, and highlights each fuel’s potential future uses across the island’s seas, roads and skies…
Biogas and biomethane
One of the key areas of potential is biogas – a gaseous mixture of methane, carbon dioxide and other gases which can be used for heating.
It can also be upgraded to biomethane through purification, and be used for a broader spectrum including cooking, heating, transport and electricity generation.
Pictured: Biogases were touted as potential sources of energy for heavy goods material in the near future.
Though biogas and biomethane are different products with different applications, they both come from the same organic source often found in materials such as crop residues, animal manure, municipal forest waste, forestry residues, and waste water.
Biomethane can also be liquefied, giving the advantage of being easily transportable, but the disadvantage that needs to the cooled down to -160 degrees, which uses a lot of energy and makes it more expensive than regular biomethane.
Researchers suggest that biogas could be a medium-term option for Jersey’s sustainable future, with production of the gases expected to grow between 2018 and 2030, and demand set to rise by 182% to 468% depending on the decarbonisation scenario considered.
However, from a transport perspective, the use of biomethane is “not necessarily compatible” with existing petrol and diesel engines, requiring retrofitting of engines.
In terms of production, a feasibility study into whether a plant to create the gases in Jersey was previously undertaken, but the study concluded that such a plant would only be able to generate sufficient fuel to Jersey’s Technical and Transport services, running 43 buses a year, and not the whole island.
At the moment, no biomethane-compatible vehicles appear to be on the island.
Though researchers concluded that both gases are “commercially unattractive at the current time”, they said that, if costs reduce, they could become valuable players in dealing with parts of the economy that would be hard to decarbonise otherwise, like heavy goods and maritime transport.
Oxera argues that local biogas production would be a “no regrets strategy”, as part of Jersey’s transport could be fuelled with compressed natural gas irrespective of what becomes the global winner for zero carbon heavy goods vehicles.
Biofuels
The research team suggests that biofuels – fuels produced from organic matter, including corn and starch, vegetable oils, or waste and debris – could be key in the process of transitioning to low carbon energy, reducing transport and heating emissions in the short and medium-term. However, most of them “cannot reduce emissions to zero”.
Pictured: Bioethanol blends were considered a short-term option for transitioning to net zero, though for higher blends it was noted petrol engines would need to change.
The two main biofuels are bioethanol and biodiesel.
Whereas bioethanol blends can be used in petrol-fuelled vehicles, biodiesel is used, naturally, in diesel-fuelled vehicles and appliances – some Jersey buses are equipped to use a form of biodiesel, HVO.
Bioethanol
This is seen as the “most suited” of the two fuels for road transport – it couldn’t be used for boats and planes – with only a “few” adjustments needed to infrastructure to bring it to the island.
Bioethanol’s “greatest potential”, researchers say, is in subsidising petrol in the short-term, as “bioethanol blends cannot deliver zero emissions, but… can help reduce emissions from road transport at a relatively low cost.”
It’s also stated that, although the vast majority of equipment is already compatible with low blends of bioethanol, existing petrol vehicles in Jersey would need to be retrofitted or replaced to be able to use certain bioethanol blends.
Biodiesel
Unlike bioethanol, biodiesel, could be used for maritime and aviation purposes, as well as road transport in the short to medium-term.
Oxera says that it would be particularly helpful in decarbonising heavy goods vehicles in particular, as electric alternatives will be unlikely.
Pictured: The most “commercially viable” biofuel for planes according to the report, HEFA-SPK, can reduce CO2 emissions from aeroplanes by between 18% and 69% depending on the feedstock.
Meanwhile, Sustainable Aviation Fuels can reduce emissions relative to regular fuel by 20% to 90% (the most “commercially viable” fuel reduces CO2 emissions from airplanes by between 18% and 69% depending on the feedstock), with the potential to reduce up to 100% in the future. Researchers believe that “pure biofuel planes are likely to be available within the next decade or two.”
Biodiesels could also provide an opportunity to decarbonise boats and maritime transport, and are already used as a replacement or blend without modifications to their engines.
The main barrier to using it in aviation and maritime operations is the large quantity needed, with researchers noting that a single very large ship may consume 100m litres of biofuel in a year, which is the annual production of a single medium-size production facility.
It can also be used in heating, with some blends seen as a low-cost way of reducing carbon emissions in households – though current boilers can safely use biodiesel blends of up to 30%, they cannot run on pure biodiesel, which could cut emissions by up to 94%. However, biodiesel compatible boilers are available to buy today.
Hydrogen
At first glance, hydrogen seems highly desirable, as it produces zero carbon emissions when burned.
However, it is the one considered the most distant a reality, as it is difficult to transport, and often best used close to where it is produced.
It’s also still expensive too, with large investments needed to build hydrogen-fuelling networks on the island, and in the additional technologies needed to use hydrogen, such as fuel cells to transform it into electricity to move vehicles, and hydrogen boilers for heat.
Pictured: Hydrogen powered infrastructure is seen as a longer term option in the review for heavy goods transport, shipping and aviation.
Whilst the least-expensive way of bringing it would be through an existing gas network, Jersey’s limited gas grid infrastructure makes that pipeline delivery less likely to be an option.
While many years from being commercially viable, researchers found that hydrogen has “significant” potential to decarbonise the island in the long-run, particularly in heavy goods transport, shipping and aviation, rather than private transport and heating, for which they say electrification would be more cost-effective.
So… where do we go from here?
Though the report outlines some options, Jersey itself isn’t short of ideas either.
Earlier this year Express spoke to Philip Hosken, who has been leading Bio Engine Technology Ltd, which he says has developed an engine that runs on a “universally available bioethanol” offers zero emission sustainability, and is suitable for heavy goods vehicles, buses and marine craft.
Similarly, Andrew Le Quesne, Chairman of Earth Project Jersey, said he had been working with consultants and having conversations with officials about the possibility of bringing an infrastructure involving hydrogen powered buses to Jersey.
However, whilst these are all ideas, concrete policy from the Government around reaching carbon neutrality is just around the corner, with the release of the Carbon Neutral Roadmap on Friday.
Although specific measures have not been released before publication of the roadmap, the Government has said that additional charges for public and private carparks, a ‘modest’ tourist tax, new road-user charges and a solid waste levy are likely to be proposed.
However, whether it takes heed of this report’s findings and, what plan it puts in place to transition to more carbon-friendly fuel and power sources, remains to be seen.
Follow Express on Friday for the latest updates on the report…