Jersey is expected to follow the “downward trend” in food inflation recently documented in the UK, according to an economist at the British Retail Consortium.
But Harvir Dhillon also noted that labour costs, impending hikes in freight charges and other lingering supply-chain pressures were likely to see the rate fall “more slowly”.
The Office for National Statistics reported a drop in food inflation from 4.9% to 4.2% in the UK as of last month.
The most recent inflation data published by Statistics Jersey marked the island’s equivalent figure at 3.6% as of September, down from 4.1% at the end of June.
Mr Dhillon told Express that: “With UK food inflation easing to 4.2%, we expect a similar downward trend in Jersey’s food inflation, which is currently at 3.6%, given the island’s heavy reliance on imports from the UK.”
His comments come just days after DFDS Jersey route director Chris Parker told a scrutiny panel why there would be a rise in freight prices next year – as the Danish shipping firm prepares to implement a “one-off correction” following a misunderstanding of how port dues are charged.
Mr Parker explained that the ferry operator had been absorbing the cost of the oversight this year, but that this would not be the case in 2026.
Mr Dhillon said that food inflation in Jersey “is likely to fall more slowly”, citing “high labour costs, rising freight charges, and other lingering supply-chain pressures” that would “continue to push up costs”.
“On the upside, the prospect of lower interest rates should offer some respite for household budgets and support consumer spending power,” he added.