Under the proposals put forward by the Committee for Home Affairs, the States’ strategic population policy would be changed to assume that “net inward migration will average up to +300 per year over the next 30 years” – three times higher than the average over the past 12 years. This is forecast to maintain the working-age population at around 31,000 and increase the total size of the population to around 68,000 by the year 2051.
Pictured: This chart, published by the States, forecasts the size of the island’s population overall in future years as adjustments are made to net migration (the number of people coming to the island minus the number leaving).
Pictured: This chart, published by the States, forecasts the size of the working population in future years as adjustments are made to net migration (the number of people coming to the island minus the number leaving).
The IoD said that it believes Guernsey’s declining workforce is a long-term, systemic issue which will require a multi-pronged approach to address this.
“We believe that managed population growth should be a key pillar in the island’s strategy to resolve the demographic problem, along with initiatives to increase labour participation, productivity and automation. A focus on using Guernsey’s current population more effectively will not solve this issue on its own.
“There is much work to be done to understand the implications for the environment, quality of life, housing, land use, transport and public services, which will require an integrated approach from the States. Smart planning and development, which recognises the need to preserve or enhance the island’s natural capital, must underpin all of this.”
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