Describing rental costs as “painful”, the IoD is among those calling for accurate data confirming Guernsey’s population to be produced.
In his latest analysis of Guernsey’s housing market, the IoD’s Lead on Economics included a call out to the States to hurry up and produce the population data that is now eight months late.
Richard Hemans said that despite local market property prices rising slightly over recent months, “underlying prices remain weak, with four-quarter rolling average down by 2%, only a slight improvement from the 3% decline reported in Q1 2025″.
Comparing the local prices to Jersey’s housing market, Mr Hemans suggests ours “is even more subdued”.
“In real terms, prices are likely declining faster than these headline figures suggest, given that inflation remains elevated,” he wrote.
While the open market remains “robust” for those wanting to buy or sell, Mr Hemans described Guernsey’s rental costs as “painful” and suggests this is putting the brakes on the island’s economic growth.
“Rental costs remain painful, consuming a significant proportion of average earnings, and stand in stark contrast to Jersey, where rents have fallen 0.5% year-on-year. Rents are likely rising faster than wages in Guernsey, pushing housing costs further out of reach for many and contributing to the island’s persistently high inflation rate. Housing unaffordability may increasingly restrict labour mobility and act as a brake on productivity and economic growth.”
The link between housing needs – where “supply remains tight” wrote Mr Hemans – and the island’s population has never been more acute than during the recent housing crisis.
But Mr Hemans highlighted the lack of any trustworthy data on how many people live in the island.
“While population growth and net inward migration have previously been cited as major contributors to housing demand, recent government analysis suggests that these figures may have been overstated due to under-reported outward migration. Revised statistics are expected to reduce the total population estimate by up to 3%. Even so, rents and prices continue to rise, suggesting that supply constraints remain the dominant force behind affordability pressures.”
The States recently confirmed that the island’s estimated population might be wrong, with a miscalculation over the number of people leaving the island.
A formal census hasn’t been held since 2001, with the States instead relying on collating data from a number of different sources including income tax and school registrations which all feeds into a ‘rolling electronic census’.
Now, the IoD has linked the housing crisis with the lack of accurate population data, with Mr Hemans calling for “accurate and timely” data which would then help settle the housing market, and potentially take some of the pain out of rental prices.
“Looking ahead, easing interest rates may improve access for committed buyers,” wrote Mr Hemans. “Yet without accelerated planning reform, expanded housing committee action and the rapid scaling of supply, especially affordable and social units, price pressures and rental inflation will remain structurally entrenched.
“While Jersey’s housing market also remains relatively unaffordable, falling prices to buy and to rent suggest that a stronger supply response may be helping to ease pressure. Guernsey’s experience also underlines the need for accurate and timely population data to inform housing policy and build public trust.”