That’s the opinion of top financial expert Trevor Charsley, who yesterday spoke about the implications of the EU referendum in front of around 100 business leaders at the Royal Yacht Hotel.

If the UK decides to remain in the EU, Mr Charsley insists there will be no discernible change to Jersey’s financial sector, but in the event of an ‘out’ vote, the future is much more difficult to predict. 

Senior markets advisor for City of London-based AFEX, Mr Charsley said: “The fact that EuroClear would probably move to Frankfurt from the City of London could be a big downside for the UK. Therefore, it would have a knock-on effect to Jersey. At the moment, Euros are cleared through the UK’s financial hub, the City of London, at EuroClear.  

“If the UK leaves the EU, the EU will look to move EuroClear. The knock-on effect could be detrimental to Jersey, as to how far, that is anyone’s guess and that has been the issue with the referendum – a lot of this is guesswork. However, you can say with certainty that would be a negative for the financial systems in the UK, and thus Jersey. 

“On the plus side for Jersey, we have done some research on this. Will Jersey, by having the same EU standards and regulations, be seen as a gateway to Europe for the UK. If you are in Dublin, or Madrid, you know you are in the EU, but with Jersey being a dependancy and outside the EU, it would be great for the island if you could get ‘passporting’ into the EU from the UK through Jersey. 

“‘Passporting’ is the way money, or investment, comes into Europe through the UK. Rather than going to each individual country, it comes into the UK and is invested through a ‘passporting’ centre. If the UK has left the EU, can Jersey get itself into a situation where it plays that role? That scenario would be tremendously beneficial for Jersey.

“If Jersey can somehow become a ‘passporting’ centre for the UK, in the event of a ‘no’ vote winning the referendum, potentially that would be of enormous benefit to the finance community in Jersey.” 

The audience heard Lucy Lillicrap, also of AFEX, which has offices in St Helier, predict that the pound will drop from approximately 1.59 to 1.20 to the dollar and from 1.43 to 1.20 to the Euro, in the event of a vote on June 23 to leave the European Union. 

Ms Lillicrap said this drop in the pound’s value could hit the economy hard: “Raw materials are all priced in dollars on the global market, such as oil. A drop in the value of the pound affects everything people spend their money on, either directly or indirectly. If pound sterling falls you will get inflationary pressures, so your costs will be more expensive and people will feel it in their pockets. 

“In reality, pound sterling sits most comfortably between 1.50 and 1.70 to the dollar. That appears to be where it is happiest. It does have periods below, but it spends very little time historically under 1.40 and very little time above 2. In fact, it spends precious little time above 1.70.

“If it goes down to around the 1.20 mark that will be felt in the economy and it will lead to more expensive goods for everyone.”