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Tony Dwyer, Chief US Strategist at Canaccord Genuity, says the current semi-permanent state of uncertainty in global markets should not be seen as a negative; rather he says there is plenty of room for optimism.
Dwyer, who is a regular commentator on national news and business programmes in the US, was in Jersey recently to share his views on how global issues on both sides of the Atlantic are affecting markets, and what that might mean for investors going forward.
The economist addressed an audience of almost 100 individual and institutional portfolio managers and investors at an informative seminar to elucidate on the economics and global events in relation to their impact on the markets and where they are headed.
“Today we’re talking about Brexit and Trump and China like it’s some kind of unique sentiment backdrop in economic slowdown. But we also had global manufacturing slowdowns in 2011 and 2012 when the eurozone nearly broke apart, and in 2015 and 2016 when commodities collapsed. Yes, we’ve had a long economic cycle but we’re just emerging from the third slowdown within that,” he said.
When asked what would pre-warn us of a recession, Dwyer pointed to a big uptick in inflation expectations which would cause central banks to tighten monetary policy. “Right now, global central banks are doing the opposite. Inflation and expectations of inflation seem benign. The economic cycle can last as long as central banks continue to and are willing to lend. While it may be right to take a more cautious approach, there are opportunities to add more risk in the months ahead.”
Tony Dwyer is a regular visitor to Jersey and the event was organised by Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management in the Island. Tim Sanders, Head of Wealth Management, Jersey, Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management said, “Tony always brings astute insights into the burning issues of the moment and delivers them in his inimitable engaging style. We are grateful to him for coming to Jersey to share his thoughts on what is happening in the world and to give our clients and intermediaries a different perspective on what is going on. It also demonstrates the depth of knowledge and expertise that Canaccord Genuity has to draw on.”
Tony Dwyer is best known for his practical application of macro-economic and tactical market indicators to help clients make better investment decisions. He is frequently seen on global financial news television networks such as CNBC, FOX Business and Bloomberg for his insights on the markets.
