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The demand for radiotherapy in Jersey will rise by 50% over the next 20 years – but even then, an on-island unit would never reach more than half-capacity, a new study has found.
Health has today published the findings of a review into whether it would make sense, economically and clinically, for the island to have its own radiotherapy unit.
Currently, cancer patients who require this specialised and highly regulated form of treatment have to travel to the UK.
When it comes to the question ‘should Jersey build its own unit?’, the review does not give a definitive ‘yes’ or ‘no’ but sets out a number of options which the next Government and Assembly can base a decision on.
It whittles the options down from 120 to 18, for politicians to consider.
Teaming up with Guernsey is not one of the options, and talks between the islands on this matter did not form part of the review.
The current provision is the cheapest – estimated to cost £73m between now and 2043 – but islanders can be away from home for up to 45 days.
CLICK TO ENLARGE: The 18 options, in blue boxes at the bottom, which the next Government and Assembly may wish to consider.
Having a full facility and cancer centre, operated in partnership with NHS expertise, would cost £98m over the next 20 years, but this comes with risks. These include the impact of the Linear Accelerator device being out of action and the complexity of the partnership arrangement.
Leaving it entirely to private sector provision would be the most expensive option, at £109m over the next two decades.
In 2019, before the pandemic significantly skewed the figures, 219 patients were sent to the UK for radiotherapy treatment. Each has approximately two preparations per treatment then approximately 15 doses – or ‘fractions’ to use the medical term - per treatment.
There were 3,121 fractions in 2019. The need for radiotherapy in Jersey is increasing primarily due to an aging and growing population, rather than more cases per capita.
Demand is expected to increase to 4,687 fractions by 2043, with around half of those for breast and prostate cancers. This excludes private patients and those who could come from Guernsey.
CLICK TO ENLARGE: Where islanders currently receive radiotherapy treatment in the UK.
However, 20% of all treatments will still have to carried out in the UK, because of their specialist nature, regardless of whether Jersey has its own unit or not.
Including current unmet demand, total fractions required by 2043 would increase to 4,888, of which 3,882 could be provided in Jersey. However, each ‘Linac’ device has the capacity to give 7,500 fractions annually, meaning that, even with increasing demand, a single machine in Jersey would remain 48% underutilised by 2043.
If the island does opt for a local Linac device, it will take five years until it is up and running due to the detailed building and commissioning process, meaning it would not be operational until 2027 at the earliest.
Health Minister Richard Renouf said: “On-island options would certainly improve patient experience by removing the need for travel but they also pose significant practical, clinical safety and regulatory issues.
“However, I think there are some practical changes that can be made now to improve current patient experience, including better accommodation and escort arrangements, as well as optimising the referral process by using NHS trusts with lower waiting times.
"Those are things we can start looking at straightaway."
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