A snapshot of potential supply and demand challenges for different property types from 2023 to 2025 has been revealed in a new report.
Although it does not account for new builds being completed during the period, the calculations by Statistics Jersey included in the 13-page document provide an insight into trends within the housing market – based on survey responses given by islanders in the Jersey Opinions and Lifestyle Survey collected during June and July 2022.
According to the report, Jersey will see a drop in demand for larger properties – particularly four-bedroom houses – but faces a shortage of smaller homes.
Shortfalls: As of this moment, if no new homes were built, the report estimates a potential shortfall of 1,590 homes, primarily one-bedroom flats and one- and two-bedroom houses.
...and surpluses: However, the report suggested a slowing demand for larger homes, with an anticipated surplus of 980 – mostly larger – properties.
Price rises: Three- and four-bedroom houses saw larger net increases in price than other property types between 2018 and 2022, rising by £115,000 and £209,000 more than two-bedroom houses respectively.
Migrant households: Around a third (34%) of the total demand for housing is anticipated to be from migrant households who arrive in the island during the three-year period.
Pictured: A breakdown of potential supply and demand by property type for the period (not including the supply of new homes)
Housing Minister David Warr said the report "confirmed" that there was a need to keep building, describing the construction of smaller units as "the right direction".
"A lot of people keep saying we are building rabbit hutches, but we are building communities. When we create these one- and two-bedroom properties – for which there is clearly a demand – we need to ensure we do so with shared space and proper amenities."
He noted that Environment Minister Jonathan Renouf was currently seeking feedback on draft planning guidance for the delivery of affordable homes on rezoned housing sites across Jersey.
"Obviously [the demand for housing] relates to the Bridging Island Plan sites, so it’s important that those come through and that we develop the drainage strategy alongside that," Deputy Warr continued.
Pictured: Housing Minister David Warr said the report "confirmed" the need to continue building homes.
"The third point is about how we can help in terms of affordability, for example shared equity and things like the Andium Homebuy scheme [where first-time buyers can purchase a home with a deferred payment of up to 25% market value] which is already in place but could be updated and revised.
"I am determined to consider all of the options for what is a complex matter, so as to not implement the wrong one."
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