Jersey is projected to face a net housing shortfall of 310 homes over the next three years, according to a new report.

The latest Future Housing Needs report was published by Statistics Jersey this morning.

The analysis, which is based on projected demographic change and households’ moving intentions rather than future housebuilding, identifies a growing mismatch between the homes that Islanders want and those likely to become available.

Express took a look at the report’s key figures…

Key shortfalls

There is a projected overall net shortfall of 310 homes between 2026 and 2028 before any new homes are built.

There is an anticipated shortfall of 1,510 mostly smaller homes, which is the main driver of the overall housing deficit.

Larger homes

However, there is an expected surplus of 1,200 mostly larger homes – offsetting much of the shortage of smaller properties.

Two-bedroom houses are expected to see the largest shortage by property type, with demand exceeding supply by 800 homes over the next three years.

There is a projected shortfall of 820 two-bedroom owner-occupied properties, making it the single largest deficit in the qualified housing sector.

Overall, the owner-occupier sector is expected to face a shortfall of around 190 homes, despite surpluses of larger family properties.

Flats

Around 5,070 one-bedroom flats are expected to become available between 2026 and 2028, making them the most common type of property entering the housing market.

Demand for one-bedroom flats is projected to reach 5,650 homes, with almost three-quarters of that demand coming from people moving to Jersey.

Around 60% of all housing demand is expected to come from households already living in Jersey who plan to move within the Island. The remaining 40% will come from households moving to Jersey.

How many people are thinking of leaving Jersey?

Around 28% of households planning to move in the next three years said they intend to leave Jersey. While this is down from 34% in the previous survey, it remains above the historic average of around 13% to 15%.

If Jersey experienced zero net migration, there would be a projected surplus of around 500 non-qualified homes.

If annual net migration increased to 800 people, the Island would instead face a shortfall of around 380 non-qualified homes.

Under the same +800 net migration scenario, the shortage of one-bedroom non-qualified homes would rise to 860 properties – the largest shortfall identified in any of the report’s migration scenarios.

An estimated 4,330 households are expected to move into, or within, the owner-occupier market over the next three years before affordability is taken into account.

But after applying the report’s affordability criteria, the number of households expected to be able to buy falls to around 3,400, suggesting many aspiring buyers would be priced out of their preferred home.

When affordability is factored in, the owner-occupier market shifts from a projected 190-home shortfall to a 640-home surplus, as fewer households are able to purchase homes. However, this also increases pressure on the qualified rental sector, where the shortfall rises to 450 homes.