Jersey’s economic forecasts take another hit

Thursday 23 July 2015

Economic growth and profit forecasts from just three months ago have been downgraded for 2015, 2016 and 2017.

Although the forecasts still show that there will be slight growth over the next few years, officials are now saying that they’re expecting lower stats in the key measurements of GVA (for economic growth), company profits, and finance sector profits.

They also say that it looks like inflation will be higher than originally thought.

January’s forecasts were reviewed by civil servants in mid-April, who downgraded predictions for economic growth in 2015, 2016 and 2017 – and who also downgraded their own assessments of company profits in each of the three years.

The numbers were downgraded slightly on the basis of updated information from the financial services sector, and updated figures about profits and tax levels based on conversations with individual institutions.

But there is also good news coming through, in that financial institutions reported a 25% rise in profits last year and employment figures that were better than expected. Next month will see the publication of economic figures for 2014 which will give the final measure for how each of the economic sectors performed.

The updated forecasts were signed-off by the panel of independent expert economists, the Fiscal Policy Panel, that will publish a full report - including commentary on ministers' economic plans - next month.

The forecast in January...

And the updated forecast in April...