States departments confused about population growth

Thursday 24 April 2014

States departments have been working to different population targets because there is no clear policy for them all to stick to, a report has found.

The Scrutiny report that is recommending that ministers ditch their “interim population policy” slated for debate at the end of the month also discovered that while most States departments were working to the 2009 target of 325 newcomers per year, the Education and Transport departments have been planning on the basis of 500 newcomers annually when forecasting demand for school places and designing the new sewage system.

In fact they’re both some way short of what’s actually been happening - net immigration (the number of people coming in, minus the number of people leaving) has been running at an average of 575 per year since the States first put in the policy of limiting it to 325.

Despite the fact that the States have never managed to keep within the 325 target in the years that the policy has been in place, the Scrutiny report revealed that planning for the new hospital, the energy policy, new homes and long-term care strategies have all been based on that target, while the Education and Transport departments have used different figures.

Potentially, that could mean that massive infrastructure investments will not be able to keep up with the growth in the Island’s population.

Paul Bradbury, the States director of corporate policy, said that the 500 threshold better reflected the reality of the situation.

He said: “Most are planning on a continuation, in effect of the 2009 Strategic Plan number of 325. Transport and Education have taken a slightly different view, as I say, partly because of the nature of their services and partly because that reflects the actual experience of migration.”