Guernsey’s Chief Minister recently claimed the island has a “small” public sector – but is this true?
Deputy Lindsay de Sausmarez told Express the island had “such a small public service compared to pretty much anywhere else per capita”.
Express decided to look at the numbers to see if her claim stands up.
VERDICT: Partly misleading
Deputy de Sausmarez’s claim that Guernsey has a small public sector compared to “pretty much anywhere” is not demonstrated by the data.
Whether you look at the percentage of the population that works in public sector jobs or the percentage of government spending that goes on paying them, we’re somewhere in the middle.
About 8.2%-8.4% of people in Guernsey work in the public sector, compared to Jersey (9.5%) and the UK (8.9%) – smaller but not by a huge amount.
Several other offshore finance centres have significantly smaller public sectors (the Cayman Islands comes in at 5.7%), while some larger emerging nations employ under 2.5% of their populations in the public sector.
However, we do have a smaller public sector than several mainland European countries, with 8.9% of French people working in the public sector, 14% in Sweden and more than 17% in Norway.
So, anyone claiming we have a much bigger public sector than the majority of places is also wrong.
Overall, Guernsey’s not an outlier in either direction. We do not have one of the smallest public sectors, but it’s also not one of the largest.
However, compared to our nearest neighbours, we do have a slightly smaller public sector per capita.
To find out more detail, read on…
What does the data show?
Here’s how Guernsey compares to a selection of other countries and jurisdictions when you look at the percentage of the population employed in the public sector.
As you can see, there are several places which have smaller public sectors by this measure, including some other offshore finance centres, while several European countries have larger public sectors per capita.
What’s the ‘public service’ and why does it matter?
The States says it is short of money – by about £50m a year long-term – and there are two oft-suggested ways to fix that: raise taxes or cut spending (or a mixture).
Staffing is one of the States’ biggest expenses, with around a third of its £650m+ budget paying for more than 5,000 staff.
Those people are made up of “frontline” workers – like teachers, nurses and police officers – as well as civil servants, who often do administrative jobs like IT, processing tax returns, analysing data, writing policies, or public relations.
Collectively, these people work for what Deputy de Sausmarez called the “public service” – also referred to as the public sector.
While most people probably don’t want fewer teachers or nurses, many – including some Deputies – have called for the States to cut civil servants, arguing we have too many for the size of the island.
Deputy de Sausmarez is saying that’s not the case.
If she’s right, then any savings will need to come from elsewhere – and taxes may need to be raised.
If she’s wrong, many people will be asking why the States isn’t willing to tighten its belt.
‘Frontline workers’ vs civil servants
At the last count, Guernsey had 5,298 “full-time equivalent posts” in the public sector – up 144 from the previous year.
The actual number of people working for the States is likely to be higher than this, as some people will work part time.
So how many of them are civil servants and how many are frontline workers? And how much do we spend on each?
We don’t know, because Guernsey doesn’t publish those figures in a way that allows a direct comparison – unlike the UK and, to a lesser extent, Jersey and the Isle of Man.
It’s also not always obvious or easy to define who is – and isn’t – a frontline worker.
For example, prison staff are counted as civil servants in the UK – something that may surprise people with a “pen pusher” stereotype of civil servants.
How does Guernsey compare?
While the lack of published data in Guernsey makes a comparison of civil servants hard, looking at how many public sector workers we have – and how much we spend on them is possible.
UK and Crown Dependencies
Let’s start by comparing Guernsey with the UK and the other Crown Dependencies – our close neighbours and arguably those with the most comparable situations.
Guernsey does have a slightly lower percentage of people working in the public sector than them – by around 0.5%-1%.
Between 8.2% and 8.4% of people on the island are believed to work in the public sector, compared to 9.5% in Jersey.
The UK comes in just above Guernsey at 8.9%, with the Isle of Man at 9.3%.
| Jurisdiction | Workforce | Population | % of population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guernsey | ~5,300 | ~62,840-64,780* | ~8.2%-8.4% |
| Jersey | ~9,950 | ~104,500 | ~9.5% |
| Isle of Man | ~7,890 | ~84,500 | ~9.3% |
| UK | ~6,140,000 | ~69,300,000 | ~8.9% |
Offshore financial centres
Next, let’s look at other offshore financial centres Guernsey’s finance industry competes for business with.
Here there’s a much wider range, with some places considerably lower than Guernsey – and at least one much higher.
Gibraltar – with a population just under 40,000 – comes in significantly above Guernsey, with about 16.3% working in public sector jobs.
However, the other finance centres we looked at all had lower per capita public sectors than Guernsey.
Bermuda – with a population almost exactly the same as ours – has 7.1% of its population working in the public sector.
The Cayman Islands – with a population between Guernsey and Jersey – comes in lower still at 5.7%.
Finally, Luxembourg – which has more than 10 times our population – is lower again at 5.4%.
| Jurisdiction | Public Sector Workforce | Population | % of population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guernsey | ~5,300 | ~62,840-64,780 | ~8.2%-8.4% |
| Bermuda | ~4,600 | ~64,600 | ~7.1% |
| Cayman Islands | ~5,000 | ~87,870 | ~5.7% |
| Gibraltar | ~6,400 | ~39,320 | ~16.3% |
| Luxembourg | ~36,100 | ~673,030 | ~5.4% |
Rest of the world
Looking further afield, it becomes harder to get a true picture of the number and percentage of public sector workers, because not every country publishes comparable figures.
However, with some reasonable assumptions we can get an approximate idea of the size of each country’s public sector.
It also goes without saying that running a country like India or Brazil is vastly different to running Guernsey, because of factors like different crime rates, healthcare systems and population sizes.
First, let’s look at the countries with the highest percentage of public sector workers – which perhaps unsurprisingly are the high-tax and heavily-socialised Nordic countries.
More than 17% of people in Norway work in the public sector, with neighbouring Sweden not far behind at about 14%.
France is slightly above Guernsey – and on a par with the UK – at about 8.9%.
However, many other European countries have smaller public sectors per capita than Guernsey – such as Spain (7.6%) and Italy (6%).
Modern East Asian countries like South Korea and Japan also have smaller public sectors than Guernsey, at 5.5% and 2.7% respectively – partly due to aggressive privatisation over recent decades.
At the foot of our table are emerging nations like India, the Philippines and Indonesia – though these figures should be treated with a healthy dollop of caution due to the difficulty of collecting accurate data in rural areas.
Between 0.25% and 1.6% of India’s 1.4 billion people work in the public sector, depending on how you define it.
The Philippines is a little higher, at 1.8%, with Indonesia higher still at 2.3%.
| Jurisdiction | Workforce (public sector) | Population | % of population |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guernsey | ~5,300 | ~62,840-64,780 | ~8.2%-8.4% |
| United States | ~23,500,000 | ~345,400,000 | ~6.8% |
| Germany | ~5,380,000 | ~84,550,000 | ~6.4% |
| France | ~5,900,000* | ~66,550,000 | ~8.9% |
| Sweden | ~1,500,000 | ~10,600,000 | ~14.2% |
| Norway | ~960,000 | ~5,576,000 | ~17.2% |
| Italy | ~3,550,000** | ~59,300,000 | ~6.0% |
| Spain | ~3,660,000 | ~47,900,000 | ~7.6% |
| Japan | ~3,390,000** | ~123,750,000 | ~2.7% |
| South Korea | ~2,860,000 | ~51,720,000 | ~5.5% |
| India | ~3,500,000–23,000,000 | ~1,450,930,000 | ~0.25%–1.6% |
| Brazil | ~12,100,000 | ~212,000,000 | ~5.7% |
| Indonesia | ~6,540,000 | ~283,490,000 | ~2.3% |
| Philippines | ~2,100,000 | ~115,843,000 | ~1.8% |
What about spending?
Of course, the percentage of people working in the public sector isn’t the only way to size it.
If we look at the percentage of government spending that goes on public sector wages, the UK is about a third lower than Guernsey, spending under 22% on staffing compared to 33%-35% in Guernsey.
Jersey is a very similar 33%, with the Isle of Man quite a bit higher at over 40%.
| Jurisdiction | Staff costs | Total expenditure | Staff costs as % of spending |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guernsey | ~£220m–£230m | ~£650m–£680m | ~33–35% |
| Jersey | ~£593m | ~£1.79bn | ~33% |
| Isle of Man | ~£527m | ~£1.3bn | ~40.5% |
| UK | ~£278.3bn | ~£1,288bn | ~21.6% |
Globally, there isn’t a clear, consistent correlation between the size of the public sector in terms of people and the percentage of government spending – presumably because of differences in wages and other operating costs.
The figures range from about 14% to about 45% – though it should be stressed these figures are based on a series of assumptions and estimates.
However, it seems clear that – like with the staffing numbers per capita – Guernsey’s somewhere in the middle when it comes to the percentage of government spending that goes on public sector staff.
| Jurisdiction | Staff costs | Total government expenditure | Staff costs % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guernsey | ~£220m–£230m | ~£650m–£680m | ~33–35% |
| Bermuda | ~£470m–£500m | ~£1.0bn–£1.1bn | ~40–45% |
| Cayman Islands | ~£250m–£290m | ~£750m–£850m | ~33–38% |
| Gibraltar | ~£200m–£230m | ~£700m–£800m | ~28–32% |
| Luxembourg | ~£8.5bn–£9.5bn | ~£21bn–£23bn | ~35–40% |
| United States | ~£1.25tn–£1.35tn | ~£5.0tn–£5.5tn | ~22–24% |
| Germany | ~£260bn–£285bn | ~£1.1tn–£1.2tn | ~22–25% |
| France | ~£280bn–£310bn | ~£1.2tn–£1.35tn | ~23–26% |
| Sweden | ~£70bn–£78bn | ~£200bn–£215bn | ~35–38% |
| Norway | ~£40bn–£45bn | ~£120bn–£135bn | ~30–33% |
| Italy | ~£215bn–£240bn | ~£900bn–£950bn | ~23–26% |
| Spain | ~£150bn–£175bn | ~£500bn–£580bn | ~28–32% |
| Japan | ~£240bn–£270bn | ~£600bn–£650bn | ~18–22% |
| South Korea | ~£80bn–£95bn | ~£360bn–£390bn | ~20–24% |
| India | ~£70bn–£180bn | ~£520bn–£580bn | ~15–35% |
| Brazil | ~£110bn–£140bn | ~£350bn–£400bn | ~30–35% |
| Indonesia | ~£25bn–£30bn | ~£160bn–£175bn | ~18–22% |
| Philippines | ~£12bn–£15bn | ~£95bn–£105bn | ~14–16% |