It is looking increasingly likely that the already approved GST+ package will come in with little opposition expected from those deputies recently elected to the States.
That’s despite a majority of States Members now being ‘against’ the idea.
Express understands that many will be persuaded that it’s the right course of action once it’s realised that there aren’t any other viable alternatives for raising the money that Guernsey needs to fund its public services and other overheads.
One of the front runners for the role of President of Policy and Resources has said the States have already exhausted most avenues of ‘reviewing’ the island’s finances and now we all need to “move forward”.
Deputy Jonathan Le Tocq has said it’s likely to be the best option for future generations – with a chance that GST+ could be reversed in time if it proves successful in solving our money problems.
“I know some people say we need to review this, that, and the other, well we’ve had many, many reviews,” Deputy Le Tocq said this week.
“I’m not against reviews, but one, they cost in terms of time, but secondly, I can’t imagine just looking at the same things again is going to come up with a different answer and I certainly found whilst I was campaigning, the majority of people I spoke to said ‘look, it’s not medicine I’d like to take, but we need to move forward on it’, and then maybe in the future, once we’ve balanced our books and we’re talking about the core services that we provide, and once we’ve done that, we can then look to what else might happen.
“And you know, some are saying we’re likely to get more revenue than we’ve estimated from some of the OECD pillar two reforms, and I’m not doubting that. I’d be pleasantly surprised if that’s the case, but that could end up being quite volatile income. It’s not income that I think we should always rely on, because financial services firms are able to move and restructure very quickly these days. So if we do make extra income from there, my view will be, unless I’m persuaded otherwise we should be banking that and replenishing our reserves that we haven’t for many, many years. We need to do that for the future generation. I’ve got four grandchildren here now living in Guernsey and I don’t want to leave them with debt.”
P&R President
Deputy Le Tocq was re-elected to the States last week and will be sworn in on Tuesday alongside his 37 colleagues.
They and the two States of Alderney representatives will then elect a President of P&R – the most senior States Member in Guernsey, who is expected to lead policy over the coming four year term of office.
Deputy Le Tocq is seen by many as a front runner for the role with his proven reputation in external relations one of his positive attributes.
Election poll topper Deputy Lindsay de Sausmarez has also confirmed she will be nominated for the role.
Deputy de Sausmarez voted against the introduction of GST+ in November 2024, while Deputy Le Tocq voted for it.
Neither Deputy mentioned GST in their manifesto ahead of last week’s election either.
Deputy de Sausmarez wrote that she wanted to “Make our tax system fairer and more efficient” though.
Deputy Mark Helyar did mention GST+ in his manifesto and he will be very pro-the new taxation system if he is successful in being elected as P&R President next week.
He campaigned on the basis that he wants to see GST+ introduced and he would drive it through the States as ‘Chief Minister’.
He said his priority after the election will be housing – but he has long been adamant that “Guernsey is living on borrowed time” and to pay for its current public services and to meet its infrastructure needs, the island needs to broaden its tax base, and that GST+ is the fairest way of doing that.
Deputy Helyar’s fiercest competition in the pro-GST+ stakes is pro-corporate tax reform candidate Deputy Charles Parkinson.
It’s been suggested by some of those in the new States and some of those exiting the States that neither Deputy Helyar or Parkinson will be elected as P&R President because of their strong views on either side of the debate.
That decision will lie with those in the new States who will vote in the new President of P&R and the new P&R committee members next week.
Who sits in those seats after the internal elections are held could dictate one way or the other whether GST+ is incoming or not.
GST+ or not GST+
Of the 38 new States Members, those who have been re-elected from the current States are by majority against GST+ confirming it remains unpopular with voters.
However, some of those who are against GST+ have said they will ‘reluctantly’ support the package if there are no other viable alternatives.
There were a number of candidates who said they oppose GST or GST+ and want to see further reforms – including to corporation tax, and other revenue raising measures – before a goods and services tax is introduced.
Re-elected former deputies Garry Collins and Marc Laine, both said they are opposed to GST, suggesting changes to corporate taxes, ‘boosting the economy’, and cutting spending respectively as ways to avoid a goods and services tax coming in.
Former Deputy, re-elected Sarah Hansmann-Rouxel made no mention of GST in her manifesto.
Other new deputies being sworn in next week that say they’re against the introduction of GST+ include Lee Van Katwyk, and Steve Williams who said he is not in favour of GST and would support looking at other measures first.
Deputy-elect David Goy says GST should not be considered until the wealthiest pay their fair share, while Deputy-elect Tom Rylatt wants “businesses and high net worth individuals (to) pay their fair share before a consumption tax (such as GST) is imposed on islanders”.
Deputy-elect Paul Montague says GST should only be introduced as part of a “broader, fairer tax strategy” and he wants it clearly explained to the island’s population first.
Other newly elected deputies Haley Camp, Rhona Humphreys, Bruno Kay-Mouat, Andrew Niles, George Oswald, Jayne Ozanne, Sally Rochester, Andy Sloan, and Jennifer Strachan did not mention GST at all in their manifestos.
Those new States Members who are likely to vote for GST+ when it comes back to the States include Deputy-elect David Dorrity who said that GST+ seems to be the fairest way suggested to reform the island’s finances.
Deputy-elect Munazza Malik said she is opposed to GST in isolation but she will support the GST+ package.
Those who were re-elected from the current States who voted for GST+ were in a minority – they are: deputies John Gollop, Neil Inder, and Sasha Kazantseva-Miller, along with deputies Helyar and Le Tocq.
Those who were re-elected who voted against GST+ outnumber them by nine to five. They are: deputies Chris Blin, Yvonne Burford, Andy Cameron, Lindsay de Sausmarez, Steve Falla, Marc Leadbeater, Aidan Matthews, Liam McKenna, and Simon Vermeulen.
Deputies Bury, Gabriel, and St Pier all missed the vote last year through being absent.
Deputy Parkinson did not vote, and Alderney States Member Alex Snowdon – who was re-elected as the island’s representative in Guernsey in December – chose ‘ne vote pas’.
Already agreed
The proposal was lodged as an amendment to the official 2025 Budget which had instead recommended a temporary increase Income Tax.
Deputy Lyndon Trott – who retires from the States this month – said putting Income Tax up to 22% from January 2025 would bring in enough money in the short term to allow the island’s politicians and civil servants to come up with a longer term plan for balancing the books.
Some of the 20 deputies who voted in favour of the GST+ package were persuaded to do so based on treasury analysis that shows local households would be better off than they would have been under the income tax plan.
The GST+ package is due to be introduced during the summer of 2027. It was originally due to come in at the start of that year but work on it has already been delayed with further queries over whether it will be levied on food of not.
At a Scrutiny hearing earlier this year, Deputy Trott said any further delays to the implementation process would be down to the next States – to be elected this month – who may or may not endorse the introduction of GST.
The new States – being sworn in on Tuesday – will have to decide if GST is levied on food, and at what rate, as well as approving other decisions and time scales.