There is increasing evidence that the omicron variant is able to spread more quickly than other, earlier variants.
The UK’s Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling Advisory Committee predicted yesterday that “if initial estimates of transmission advantage and immune escape from South Africa are applicable to the UK population, there is the potential for a very substantial peak of infections much larger than occurred during the winter wave of January 2021”.
Pictured: This slide, presented by Dr Nicola Brink at last night’s public briefing, shows how a range of variants of covid-19 accelerated in England. The omicron variant is represented by the green line on the far left of the graph and indicates why scientists are concerned that it may be more easily spread than other, earlier variants.
However, scientists are hopeful that there will soon be reliable evidence to support initial reports about the severity of illness caused by the omicron variant.
“We’re uncertain about the disease severity of omicron, but there are encouraging reports appearing of a disease which appears to be milder,” said Dr Brink. “That remains to be confirmed, but it certainly is encouraging.
“For us, the uncertainty is when will we be hit with an omicron wave. There are six cases in the island and we’ve almost certainly got a degree of community transmission of omicron occurring. But we don’t know the speed at which we’ll see omicron entering the island or the duration of an omicron wave.”
Dr Brink is hopeful that by early next month much more will be known about the likely course of omicron, both internationally and locally.
“You have to factor in that disease and severe illness will lag a couple of weeks behind infections,” she said. “So really seeing the full impact of hospitalisations, we’re probably about 10 days off that in the UK.
“I would calculate that we’re a couple of weeks behind the UK. I think that from a Bailiwick perspective the next three weeks are going to be quite critical for us. We’re going to see how fast the wave hits us.
“Our advantage is that we’re doing real time sequencing. We’re one of the few jurisdictions in the world sequencing within 48 hours of getting a result.”
Pictured: Dr Nicola Brink, Medical Officer of Health, said that the arrival in Guernsey of the omicron variant had made it more important to speed up the vaccine booster programme and she encouraged people to get to the vaccination centre at Beau Sejour to have their next jab.
Dr Brink said that booster vaccines were now of even greater importance in the fight against covid.
She said it was now known that there were “lower levels of vaccine protection from a primary course of vaccination against symptomatic infection with omicron compared to the protection that they provide against the [delta variant]…however, the preliminary data showed effectiveness against omicron appears to increase considerably in the early period after a booster dose, providing around 70% to 75% protection against symptomatic infection”.
Dr Brink said the rate at which people are coming forward for booster vaccines needs to be accelerated.
“In general, I would like to see the booster programme speed up,” she said. “There is a reason to speed it up really fast now because we’re facing a new threat.
“Would I have wanted it to go at the pace it was going? No, which is why we speeded it up. I really want to try and get as many people as we can boosted before the end of this year.”