We still don’t know what financial incentives were agreed with British Airways to launch its new Heathrow route, but its claimed Guernsey Ports will see a bump in profits from the route, even in a “worst case scenario” for Aurigny.
That scenario was detailed in a series of answers given by the States Trading Supervisory Board to Rule 14 Questions on the new Heathrow route posed by Deputy Andy Cameron.
In the responses STSB confirmed that financial incentives were agreed with British Airways to launch the Heathrow route.
However, STSB claims these details are commercially confidential and it would not disclose the cost or the value of any discounts.
STSB explained that throughout last year Guernsey Ports modelled several scenarios as part of work leading up to the route’s launch.
STSB has suggested this modelling shows that even if passengers switch from using Aurigny’s Gatwick service to the new BA Heathrow service, the airport will still see a net increase in revenue.
Consequently, the 2026 financial forecasts do not currently include any predicted income reductions, though the STSB is monitoring the situation monthly.
A spokesperson for the board said: “The STSB is unable to comment on current passenger behaviours as it does not have information that would enable it to do so.
“However, the STSB will be monitoring the overall passenger numbers through Guernsey Airport on each route, which will provide real-time information on the impact of Heathrow and other factors depending on whether volumes increase, decrease or remain unchanged on previous years.”
To help protect the island’s finances, STSB said it is looking at efficiency, tighter controls, and better alignment of policy.
Essentially, Guernsey Ports is running a programme to reduce costs and improve customer focus, whilst STSB has taken back direct control over air route discounts, meaning individual boards can no longer approve incentives without full STSB authorisation.
STSB also aims to balance the goal of better connectivity with the financial implications on both the airport and Aurigny.
The spokesperson said: “Previously, decisions on the application of route incentive discounts were delegated to the Guernsey Ports Board. Recently, this STSB has removed that delegation and any discounts now require full STSB approval.
“This is to ensure that the STSB is able to take a broad States of Guernsey wide view of the interplay across air route policy, a matter for CfED, the operations of Guernsey Airport and the impact, as shareholder, on Aurigny.
Deputy Cameron said he remains concerned about the transparency of the new Heathrow route deal, the lack of details available publicly about it, and the overall need for a second subsidised airline flying in and out of the Bailiwick.
“These replies took over three weeks to come back and still don’t provide the key figures. Quick to approve subsidies, slower to provide the detail.
“Islanders deserve transparency when public money and our air links are involved. They also deserve clarity on how many airlines the taxpayer is expected to subsidise, and at what point that stops supporting connectivity and starts distorting the market.
“I believe one subsidised airline is probably sufficient. Beyond that, we are funding competition with taxpayers’ money rather than genuinely improving connectivity.”
