That’s the doomsday view of Health and Social Services Minister Andrew Green, who says the new £450million hospital, due to be completed by 2025, is desperately needed.
A newly published report, entitled Acute Service Strategy 2015-2024, says services are so stretched in the Island that it predicts a total breakdown inside a decade, unless a new hospital is built.
The report stated: “The Island will run out of capacity in key service areas over the next five to ten years. This will happen earlier in some areas eg. operating theatres, emergency in-patient wards. The services therefore need significant expansion to ensure that the needs of the people of Jersey can be met into the future.”
Senator Green said: “I absolutely stand by the report’s conclusions. If we do nothing the whole system is just going to grind to a halt.
“If we carried on doing what we are doing and the population continues to grow and live longer, that is no longer tenable.
“The new hospital will create around 320-330 beds. If we were not to provide that and just carried on the way we have been, it would spell real problems as outlined in the report.”
While Senator Green is adamant the new hospital is vitally required to avoid the report’s conclusions, he says efficiency can also be improved, with some operations now taking only a fraction of the time they needed previously.
Senator Green said: “The strategy is to try and do some things differently, in readiness for the new hospital.
“The example I use is that if you went in to hospital and had a hernia operation ten years ago you would have been in for ten days. You are in for a morning now. It’s about doing things more efficiently and yet still with safety of paramount importance.”
The report into acute services concluded that while Jersey’s population is growing relatively slowly, it is ageing rapidly.
The report said: “Between 2010 and 2040 there will be a 95% rise in the over-65s population, with a 35% increase by 2020. The growth in the older adult population will create a challenging increase in demand for health and social care services.
“Current services are generally performing well but they are close to capacity and could not accommodate this increase in demand.
“Jersey needs an overarching model for health and social care which can respond to the challenges of future demand. This model cannot be based on increasing the capacity of the General Hospital to treat more patients. This approach would be unsafe, unsustainable and unaffordable.”
Senator Green said: “While the future hospital will provide a modern building we must not, and cannot, wait until it is built to begin to make the changes in the way we provide the services that are essential to meet the acute healthcare needs of Islanders. That work needs to start now.”