Without migration, Jersey’s working age population would have fallen every year since 2012, according to the island’s latest population and migration statistics.

The newly-published report by Statistics Jersey places the island’s falling birth rate, migration and the working age population in the spotlight.

Express took a look at the headline figures, which were released this morning…

The statistics at a glance…

  • Jersey’s population, as of the end of last year, is provisionally estimated to be 104,540.
  • This marks a rise of 510 people in comparison to the revised population figure for the end of 2023 (104,030).
  • There were 150 more deaths than births, continuing the negative ‘natural change’ seen in 2022, 2023 and 2024.
  • Prior to 2022, natural change had not fallen below zero since 1983.
  • Net migration last year was 670, with immigration and emigration recorded as 4,280 and 3,610 people respectively.
  • Without migration, the working age population would have fallen every year since 2012 by an average of 240 people per year due to ageing and deaths.
  • From 2019 to 2024, the number of islanders aged 65 years and over grew by 12% while the number of under 16-year-olds fell by 7%.
  • The number of residents with a temporary work permit has increased from less than 100 to 1,740 people by the end of 2024.
Pictured: A graph showing how Jersey’s population has grown since 2012 (Statistics Jersey).

The report’s publication comes just a few months after business leaders sounded the alarm over the island’s falling birth rate, with Chamber of Commerce CEO Murray Norton warning that Jersey is becoming “a smaller, older island”.

At the time, Mr Norton stated this had implications “for every sector of our community and economy”.

Should we agree to grow the population?

Speaking at a Question Time event hosted by All Island Media last week, Mr Norton argued that, rather than creating policies which seek to cap or control the workforce, Jersey’s government should instead focus on creating a “sustainable” population.

He suggested 116,000 to 118,000 as a possible aim for policymakers to work towards.

“If that’s what we need to be sustainable, let’s have the honest conversation. That’s the population we need by 2040, so how are we going to get there?” Mr Norton added.

Effects on education

Reacting to today’s figures, Sir Mark Boleat – who helps shape the work of local thinktank Policy Centre Jersey – described the fall in births as a “very significant trend”.

“It’s already having an effect on education,” he said.

“Talking with people running primary schools and nurseries now, they’re seeing this reduction, which has been going on for some years now, beginning to come through in numbers of children.”

Pictured: Sir Mark Boleat

Asked about the implications of a reliance on external workers and the potential impact this could have on housing demand, Sir Mark said: “Jersey can have a smaller population if it wants, but then it’s no good complaining that the restaurants are shutting and we haven’t got teachers.

“So it’s not a question of Jersey bringing people in – this is businesses that need to employ staff, they can’t get them on-island, therefore they recruit from wherever they can.

“The immigration numbers are still way below what we had years ago.”

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