Jersey could be heading towards a future where almost every working-age adult is supporting one dependent person, according to new official projections laying bare the island’s ageing population crisis.
If there there there was net-nil migration (e.g. no new people moving to the island, on balance), the dependency ratio – which measures the number of non-working-age people for every 100 working-age residents – could reach 94 by 2080.
The island’s reliance on inward migration, as well as its ageing population and declining birth rate are among the trends laid bare in the latest data published by Statistics Jersey.
The 2025 Population and Household Projections report, released today, provides information on the projected future size and structure of Jersey’s resident population over the next five decades based on different scenarios of migration and assumptions about fertility and mortality.
Express took a look at the key figures…
The headline population stats at a glance:
Based on a net gain of 400 people annually from migration, and mid-range fertility and mortality assumptions, the total population is projected to be “fairly stable” in size with around 105,000 islanders until 2050, before beginning to decline.
Based on similar assumptions, a net migration of around 700 people per year would be needed to maintain a stable size of working-age population in the long term.
For all net migration scenarios projected (up to 800 people per year), the number of people aged under 16 will continue to decrease, while the number of people aged 65 and over will be around, or greater than, 28,000 by 2040.
The latter statistic marks an increase of 36% from 20,600 at the end of 2024.
Additionally, the number of people aged 80 years and over is projected to be more than 11,000 by 2050, almost double the number estimated at the end of 2024 (5,770).
Fertility rate
The report also contains data around Jersey’s total fertility rate, which is an estimate of the number of children born to a woman in her lifetime – based on the current rates of age-specific fertility in the population.
The mid-range fertility assumption chosen for the population projections assumes the total fertility rate “will continue the observed downward trend in the short term” before stabilising around a figure of 1.01 by 2034.
By comparison, the replacement fertility rate, which indicates the level needed for a population to replace itself from one generation to the next, is around two children per woman.
The report’s publication comes just weeks after the most recent annual statement from the Office of the Superintendent Registrar showed that just under 700 babies were born in Jersey in 2025.
This is the lowest number of births recorded since 1945 and also marks a 2.5% decrease in comparison to 2024 and a 30% drop in comparison to 2015.
A growing dependency ratio
Some of the more striking projections relate to the island’s dependency ratio, which is the number of “dependent” (non-working-age) people per 100 working-age people.
It is anticipated to increase for all projected net migration scenarios, reaching as high as 94.1 by 2080, with a net nil migration scenario.
With a net annual migration of 400 people, combined with mid-range fertility and life expectancy assumptions, it is projected to rise to 60.9 dependently aged people per 100 people of working age by 2040, further increasing to 77.3 by 2080.
The figures come less than a year since the Chamber of Commerce warned that Jersey is becoming “a smaller, older island”, which has “implications for every sector of our community and economy”.
The report notes: “The dependency ratio is initially larger for the higher fertility assumption until 2070. This is because more births result in a larger population aged under 16.
“This changes after 2070, when enough projected births have reached working age to offset the larger size of the population aged under 16. The opposite is true for the lower fertility assumption.”