Jersey’s GP model needs to “evolve” to “meet the changing needs of the population”, according to the body that represents the profession.
Dr Nigel Minihane, who chairs the Primary Care Body, was responding to queries from Express about what immediate and long-term support primary care needs to manage a projected increased demand in GP appointments.
This comes after the Public Health Director said that a projected extra 43,520 appointments needed by 2053 that could cost an extra £1.4 million per year in an annual report published last week.
In the Director of Public Health Report 2024, Peter Bradley’s team warned that the island’s ageing population and increasing rates of preventable illnesses are putting growing pressure on healthcare services and made a case for investing in prevention to ease the anticipated pressure on GPs and associated costs.
Responding to the figures, Dr Minihane acknowledged the current high demand for GP services but challenged the report’s assumption that population growth will be the primary driver of increased pressure and questioned the accuracy of these forecasts.
“While we appreciate the report’s efforts to forecast future healthcare needs, we believe it’s difficult to accurately assess the full impact on primary care at this stage.
“The report assumes a significant population increase, yet current figures suggest the population is relatively static, with a potential ‘Bean drain’ of young people and families. This demographic shift could significantly alter the projected demand for GP appointments.”
This comes after Express revealed a 7% decline in the island’s population of 20- to 30-year-olds between 2017 and 2023, with an even sharper 13% drop among those aged 20 to 24.
However, while long-term demand remains difficult to predict, Dr Minihane went on to explain how “general practice is currently experiencing high demand.”
To address this strain, he explained that the Primary Care Board is “actively working to manage this through various initiatives”.
“We are expanding our workforce according to requirements and optimising appointment scheduling to accommodate the growing needs of our patients.
He continued: “We are collaborating with other healthcare providers, such as nurses, pharmacists, and physiotherapists, to offer a more holistic and integrated approach to patient care.
“We are embracing technology, data sharing and online appointment booking, to improve access, communication and efficiency.”
Responding to questions about whether Jersey’s current GP model is sustainable, Dr Minihane said: “We believe it needs to evolve to meet the changing needs of the population.”
Prevention, he argued, must play a greater role in reducing the strain on primary care — which could include things like increased screenings and immunisations.
It comes after Public Health officials warned that preventable conditions such as type 2 diabetes are driving healthcare costs upwards.
Concluding, Dr Minihane said: “The projected increase in demand for GP appointments presents both challenges and opportunities for us.
“By proactively addressing these challenges and embracing innovative solutions, we can ensure a sustainable and effective primary care system for the future.”