When it comes to investing in a market shaped by political drama and economic uncertainty, consistency, patience and perspective are critical, according to Craig Allen, Head of Investment Management, Guernsey at Julius Baer.

Mr Allen was one of the key speakers at the Julius Baer Spring Investment Seminar, where he shared insights alongside Brad Brezinski, a representative from Boston Partners.

Mr Allen emphasised the resilience of the US economy, noting that despite frequent predictions of an impending recession, the markets have consistently recovered.

“Every week almost for the last six years we’ve seen a prediction that the US economy will go into recession. It’s just not happening at the moment,” said Mr Allen.

He highlighted recent performance figures to demonstrate his point.

“Every time there has been a drop, the markets have recovered. If you had invested in our Sterling Based portfolio at the start of this year, and checked the performance today, you would be up 2%. That is despite all the movement based on Trump’s tariff announcements sending the markets down and then up.” 

Mr Allen acknowledged the risks associated with Trump’s policies but reinforced the importance of a steady approach to investing.

“Of course there is a risk – Trump’s position is inherently risky based as it is on dealmaking. If no deals are made, for example, then there is a chance that things could go wrong.”

A consistent approach to investing is needed, but it could be combined with a carefully managed approach to innovation.

According to Brad Brezinski, who represented Boston Partners, “Trump is a deal maker. His view is that to get a good deal you have to start with a point of negotiating power. So, announcing onerous tariffs was not a surprise to many. This is because we know what he wants most is to sit at tables with world leaders and shake hands on a deal he has negotiated.”

Indeed, in the few days following the Julius Baer Spring Investment Seminar, Trump had shaken hands on deals with the UK, China and Saudi Arabia.”

Mr Allen also highlighted the unique opportunities in the US market for growth investments.

“If you want only growth investments, especially those within the Technology sector, then you need to be in the US market. The size of the US market is huge. For instance, Marks and Spencer, one of the UK’s best-known brands, would just about be classified as mid-cap in the US, despite its £7 billion market capitalisation. The whole UK equity market is more or less equivalent in value to Nvidia alone.” 

Nevertheless, Mr Allen suggested that the UK market also offers opportunities, particularly in value investing.

“Maybe whisper it quietly, but the UK is quite interesting. The FTSE 1000 went up 15 days in a row recently. There are plenty of strong companies offering great value.”

He also noted the positive impact of recent interest rate cuts in the UK.

“If you are looking to buy property or buy to let, there are now better deals out there.”

Both speakers agreed, the key to value investing was looking at businesses individually, finding the good ones, and buying when the price was right.