Comment: Population - the only way is up

Monday 25 September 2017

Dealing with the tricky and controversial issue of population growth is sure to be one of the critical issues in the forthcoming elections. Apparently, a new population policy is imminent - but will it go for growth? Here, leading businessman Kevin Keen explains why he believes the only way is up.

"As the May 2018 elections get close,r politicians are no doubt dusting off previous manifestos, looking at how well they have done and getting ready to defend what they have not done. A key issue in previous elections has been population control and no doubt it will be again in 2018.

"In October 2014, Senator Gorst said in his manifesto: “Whilst we have introduced the Interim Population Policy, we must now deliver a policy for the long-term and continue to deal with the ageing population.” Being a politician, especially a Minister, is a difficult job and credit to anyone willing to take it on, but on this issue I have been very disappointed with progress.

"You see, politicians tend to get elected by telling us what they think we want to hear, rather than what we need to hear. The reality in my view anyway, is that the population is going to need to go up, many of us are going to have to work longer and we will need to build more places to live. Not a popular election slogan - especially when others will say, "Close the doors, Jersey will be like the good old days."

"The headline number for population needs to go up because we are living longer which means there are going to be more pensioners to support. This is great news, but it puts strain on public services and 'pay as you go' pension schemes, which is why we need to focus on maintaining our working population levels and worry less about the total population. The alternative will almost certainly be a lower standard of living especially for the growing number of pensioners.

"If we live longer, we are going to have to get used to working longer - not too much of a problem for desk jockeys like me, but admittedly much more challenging for those doing physical work. We will also have to find a way to save more for our retirement. Government can do more to encourage life long learning and saving for retirement. For our part we will have to be more flexible in the sort of work we do and frankly forget about the idea of retiring at 65 unless we are rich.

"If we are going to have more people living in Jersey, then we need to provide sufficient, affordable and decent places to live. Again, we may need to change our mindset on where and probably how high we build. Here, again, the States both as planners and major landowners have a big part to play.

"So my appeal to standing and prospective politicians, particularly on the population issue, but more generally also, is be more strategic, be bolder, but be realistic and be faster. For our part (media included) we need to be more forgiving when politicians and officers make honest mistakes. Providing they own up to them quickly and don’t make the same ones over and over. As Albert Einstein said: “A person who never made a mistake never tried anything new.""

The personal views expressed in this article are those of Mr Keen himself, and not of any other company/entity with which he may be involved.