Commissioned by the Department of the Environment and Department for Infrastructure, the report assessed for the first time changes in Jersey’s sea level and coastal conditions as a result of climate change, using a case study based on St Aubin’s Bay. The review covered a variety of factors that affect the sea level, from extreme water levels, to vertical land movement and wave heights.

The main finding is that the rise in sea level is in line with global averages, with a yearly increase of 3mm. Based on a scenario in line with the targets agreed in the 2016 Paris Agreement, the likely increase in mean sea-level by 2100 is 0.48m. The experts also found that extreme coastal and water level events are likely to become more frequent in the future, or even the norm. The report states: "Even quite small increases in mean sea-levels will have a large impact on the return period experienced during extreme events."

Furthermore, based on the St Aubin’s Bay case study, experts found that sea defences might not prove enough in the future. Due to rising levels, there will be a "significant increase in sea water overtopping defences" in certain areas.

Pictured: St. Aubin's Bay was used as a case study for the report.

Deputy Steve Luce, the Minister for the Environment, commented on the findings saying they were in line with his department's expectations. He told Express: "There are no surprises there, we just have a lot more clarity about where we think we might be in the future. We can't call those results reassuring because we are obviously concerned about climate change, but there is nothing that we weren't expecting."

The report’s authors, which include Dr Thomas Prime, have issued a series of recommendations. These include further monitoring of the sea level rise and increased collaboration between departments and agencies - including the creation of a steering group. They also recommend more modelling work be carried out to assess "the impact of greater volumes of water discharging over Jersey’s sea defences" and a review of options and their costs from improving coastal monitoring. 

Pictured: The Department for Environment will be commissioning a report on the impact of rising sea levels to the whole island next year.

Deputy Luce said that the department of Environment will be commissioning a bigger piece of work on the impact of rising sea levels for the whole island. He explained: "We are going to list all the places affected as well as the work that needs to be done to protect them and mitigate the impact of higher water levels. We will also have an estimation of costs. This first report was a small version and we are now convinced that the experts' way is robust and scientifically correct. They produced a sensible and very detailed document and we will now ask them to look at everything else. It is time to act and we are commissioning the work to plan ahead and take the appropriate steps." 

Work to heighten the sea wall along the Gunsite will start on 3 July to help combat flooding problems in the area. https://t.co/SbQKndci1Q pic.twitter.com/SOrLhBMxys

— States of Jersey (@StatesofJersey) June 13, 2017

The States already have a number of projects underway to help manage climate risks. As part of the Sea Defence Strategy 2016, the DfI is raising the sea wall from the Gunsite to Beaumont . The Department is also leading a climate risk modelling project over the next two years to develop a Shoreline Management Plan. The Department of the Environment is also leading 'Future St Helier,' a project to regenerate the parish into an environmentally aware place to live and work which includes climate resilience. Finally, both departments are working with Ports of Jersey to incorporate climate resilience.

Deputy Eddie Noel, the Minister for Infrastructure, said: “We have a robust programme of coastal defence maintenance which is ongoing but it is important for us to prepare for the future and this report provides us with a good basis for planning in association with our colleagues at the Environment Department.”