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The Government's key scientific advisory group expressed caution over drawing conclusions from the high number of covid tests in Jersey, stating that an increase did not necessarily equate to more people being tested - because islanders were now receiving multiple tests.
In a meeting on 18 December, it is noted that STAC's Independent Adviser of Epidemiology and Public Health “reiterated his view that he was concerned that the Cell was reaching decisions on the basis of data, which required greater scrutiny and was misunderstood or, potentially, incomplete.
“As an example, on 17th December it had been recorded that 3,404 tests had been undertaken, which was a significant increase from the daily rate of 2,018 that had been reported over the previous week and he queried whether elements of double- or triple-counting were involved.”
However, there was recognition that, because multiple tests had always been included in the statistics, it was still possible to make comparisons.
Again, from 18 December: “The Consultant in Communicable Disease Control [Dr Muscat] suggested that the current level of risk posed by Covid-19 was being greatly underestimated and he could not over-emphasise the seriousness of the current situation.
“Although there had been an increase in testing, this was often of the same person, mindful that direct contacts now received three tests, rather than none and while he accepted that the data was not perfect, it had been imperfect ab initio [from the beginning], so there was a degree of comparability between the figures as at today’s date and previous weeks and this demonstrated that the trajectory was steeply upwards.”
Pictured: The Airport testing centre.
The minutes of that particular meeting record that the increase in the weekly testing rate had led to an uplift in positive cases being identified, however the exact impact on the enhanced testing was not clear and STAC urged for caution when interpreting the data and drawing any conclusions from them
However, it adds that “the increase in the number of people experiencing covid-19 symptoms and seeking healthcare, together with admissions to Hospital was suggestive that there had been a real rise in the number of cases.
“The Cell recalled that the number of daily cases had grown from an average of ten in November, to 30 in late November and approximately 60 in early December, to a current average of more than 80. However, the Consultant in Communicable Disease Control indicated that, as at the time of the meeting, there had been 131 new cases.”
The minutes of 23 November reveal that STAC did consider mandatory testing for all healthcare staff:
“The Chair [Patrick Armstrong] acknowledged that this was a difficult subject, because the [Health] Department preferred to encourage people to undertake testing on a voluntary basis, but the Hospital did require certain professionals to undergo testing for HIV and Hepatitis B before they were permitted to undertake high exposure procedures, so a precedent existed.
“The Interim Director, Public Health Policy, opined that, depending on the working environment of the relevant employees, it might be possible to link the mandate to be tested to relevant professional standards, or Health and Safety requirements.
“The senior management team within the Health and Community Services Department, together with representatives from the Jersey Care Commission, could advise staff to undertake PCR tests, without the need to make it mandatory. He indicated that the issue would be reviewed over the coming days and he would give consideration to whether the Unions should be involved in the matter.”
The minutes note that STAC noted the position but didn’t make a decision. It is not referenced in later minutes so, presumably, the issue became less pressing.
The minutes were among a collection of more than a dozen relating to meetings held in the final quarter of 2020, which were published today.
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