The States of Guernsey has announced that “more time is needed to ensure that the statistics are as accurate as possible when they are next issued” regarding the quarterly publications of population, employment, and earnings figures.
This delay, initially hoped to conclude by the end of July, stems from “critical findings” related to the island’s Rolling Electronic Census.
The States also revealed significant errors have been uncovered, particularly concerning outward migration statistics and, consequently, the accuracy of the published total population figures.
A spokesperson for the states revealed that in the past, the number of people leaving Guernsey has been recorded as lower than the actual figures: “additional data validation, alongside the improved capabilities of the new IT systems within the Revenue Service, has brought to light some issues with data used in the Rolling Electronic Census.
They continued: “These issues are likely to have caused historical outward migration statistics (i.e. the number of people moving away from Guernsey) to be under-stated.”
They’ve also announced that as a direct consequence of the understating of outward migration, the previously published total population figures are now understood to be overstated.
The States spokesperson continued: “As a result, the most recently published statistics likely over-state net migration and the total population figure.”
While small revisions are normal, the expected correction is significant: “It is now expected that the next publication could include a downward revision of the total population of up to 3% – a larger revision than is normal.”
The priority for the States remains the accuracy of these statistics, as “it is important that the public can have confidence in the published statistics.”
They’ve confirmed that additional resources have been allocated to rectify these issues, and say a further update will be provided once a new publication date is confirmed.
The current issues stem from additional data validation and the “improved capabilities” of the new IT systems, which have brought to light problems with the Rolling Electronic Census data.
The Express has previously highlighted how the Rolling Electronic Census draws information from various States of Guernsey databases, including Income Tax, Social Security, Population Management, Health, and Driving Licences and Vehicle Registrations, to provide a “live insight” into population numbers.
It had been touted as a cost-effective solution, superior to traditional censuses, providing “more frequent and accurate information for policy decisions”.