Guernsey’s most recent population data may have been out by a margin of almost 1,000 people.
We’re still waiting on the publication of this year’s quarterly Population, Employment and Earnings data, which was delayed earlier this year.
In July, the States admitted significant errors had been uncovered with the past data, particularly concerning outward migration statistics.
Nearly 1,000 people may have been incorrectly assumed to still be living in the island, when they had in fact left.
Two thirds of those people left the island before 2022, the Revenue Service has admitted.
The most recently released Population, Employment, and Earnings report – comprising data collated through the island’s rolling electronic census – was published almost a year ago, in October 2024.
It stated the island’s population at 31 December 2023, Employment and Earnings data up to 30 June 2024, and Unemployment data as at 30 September 2024.
It said the population at the end of 2023 was 64,781 – the highest it had ever been.
However, the Revenue Service suggests that figure – relating to December 2023 – put the island’s population 951 higher than it really was.
Scott Bloomfield, Head of Service Delivery for the Revenue Service, said work is ongoing to confirm the data that the Revenue Service must provide to help estimate the island’s true population.
“We are making good progress in providing the necessary information so that the States of Guernsey can restore its quarterly publications of population, employment and earnings figures,” Mr Bloomfield said.
“We have completed our data cleaning exercise using our new systems, identifying 951 people who we now know have left the island, who had previously been included in population statistics. This will be reflected in the next population report to be published. Of the 951 people, approximately 650 people left the island before the end of 2022, with the remaining number having left since the beginning of 2023.
“We are also currently processing employer contribution returns, as well as making sure the relevant data can be extracted from our systems for the eCensus system.”
Helen Walton, Head of the Data and Analysis Service, said the next lot of figures will be extensively restated to take this error into account.
She is keen to ensure the accuracy of the rolling electronic census.
“We routinely restate our more recent population statistics by small numbers as new information becomes available but will restate them more extensively before our next publication in order to reflect the updates that have been made to Revenue Service records,” she said.
“Being transparent about this issue and re-establishing the accuracy of the census statistics are both extremely important to us, so that government, industry and members of the public can continue to have confidence in the information we provide.
“We will have a better idea of an anticipated publication date for affected statistics within the next couple of weeks.”