The government has confirmed that it wants Jersey’s population to keep growing to keep the economy healthy, but only by a “small” amount… without saying what that actually means.
The clarification came from Chief Minister Lyndon Farnham, after Deputy Max Andrews asked whether the Government was advocating “a positive, zero, or negative net migration rate”.
Sustaining the economy and protecting tax revenues
“The Council of Ministers’ policy is to advocate for a small positive net inward migration rate in the working age population, which alongside ongoing support to improve productivity will help sustain our economy and protect tax revenues,” Deputy Farnham responded.
He added that the Council of Ministers intends to publish its ‘Common Population Policy Annual Report 2025’ at the end of the year.
The statement follows recent debate over Jersey’s long-term population direction, with birth rates continuing to decline while the population as a whole gets progressively older and unhealthier.
What should we aim for?
In an event hosted last month by All Island Media which discussed how far the Island should “open the doors or pull up the drawbridge” in response to pressures on the public purse, housing and infrastructure, Chamber of Commerce CEO Murray Norton called for the government to settle on a clear “North Star”.
Rather than creating policies which seek to cap or control the workforce, he said Jersey needed to focus on creating a “sustainable” population, offering 116,000 to 118,000 as a possible aim for policymakers to work towards.
“We definitely do [need a North Star],” he said. “And once you have one, then you can decide what is needed and how best to do it. The conversation also can’t just be within government.”
Mr Norton added: “If that’s what we need to be sustainable, let’s have the honest conversation. That’s the population we need by 2040, so how are we going to get there?”
Temporary work permits soar by 3,528% since covid
Population statistics released shortly after the debate showed that, without migration, the Island’s working-age population would have fallen every year since 2012 by an average of 240 people per year due to ageing and deaths.
Home Affairs Minister Mary Le Hegarat was last week questioned on the scale of the challenge facing the Island’s labour market, and told a Scrutiny panel how things had changed drastically since Brexit and the covid pandemic.
During the same hearing, it was revealed that 2,432 temporary work permits were issued in 2024 – an increase of 3,528% when compared to the 67 temporary work permits issued in 2019.
Under the Island’s Immigration (Work Permits) (Jersey) Rules 1995, employers are required to apply for a work permit for staff who require immigration permission to enter or remain in Jersey for work.
Temporary permits for nine or 12-month periods can be issued, depending on the sector. Subject to certain criteria – such as a minimum English language requirement – skilled work permits are also available for up to three-year periods.
“What we lost was the European community that were able to work and remain here,” Deputy Le Hegarat told the panel.
“But I also think that there were changes as well as a result of covid, where people wanted to leave the Island to go back to be closer to their families – which is what happened during the previous government.”
Scrutineers Deputy Catherine Curtis and Constable Mark Labey said that, given the sharp rise, it was important to ensure temporary workers were being treated well.