Comment: Enough knee-jerk, time for a "mature" debate...

Wednesday 26 June 2019

In the wake of Jersey’s latest population stats being released, much focus has been placed on the 106,800 headline figure … but is this the most "mature" approach to considering the issue?

Despite the knee-jerk reactions and calls for Jersey’s doors to be shut immediately, as we hurtle towards a more uncertain future with the threat of an ageing population looming – perhaps a growing population isn’t so bad after all?

At least, that’s the view of Express columnist Kevin Keen who is urging the island to have a more “mature” and ‘big-picture’ debate about population...

“Last week the population estimates for 2018 were published, they showed that the number of people living here had grown to 106,800 an increase just over 1% in the last year. The increase was largely due to inward migration so inevitably brought further demands for a population policy.

Pictured: Jersey's population is estimated to have grown by just over 1% in 2018.

For what it is worth I agree with that, but probably not for the same reason as many people. I really believe an excess focus on the headline population and demands for our doors to be closed to immigration are unworkable and risk real damage to our community. 

Looking over a longer time period might help explain why I hold this view. At the time of the last census in 2011 our population was 97,857 so the increase since then has been 9% but the number of residents over 65 has increased by 25% from 14,473 to 18,060, a trend set to continue. 

We often hear about the consequences of longer lives but here is one real impact, in order to maintain a stable working population and keep the current retirement age our headline population is bound to grow. 

In addition to this more old people means more pressure on the care sector meaning more people to provide care to the very elderly. Maybe one day robots will be able to do this, but hopefully not too soon!

Pictured: Mr Keen says the population stats should be taken in the island's wider context.

Since 2013, employment in the private sector within Education, Health and other services has seen its headcount grow by 27% to 7,860 – there are no doubt similar pressures in the public sector. 

Living longer is great news (especially if you are getting older like me) but older people will place additional pressure on our desire to manage the population at the headline level.

I have long thought that we really do need a more mature debate about the population and I hope the latest delays mean that is what our leaders are preparing for. I hope it will also lead to a more thoughtful approach as to how government values individuals among our population.

Pictured: "I have long thought that we really do need a more mature debate about the population."

I really dislike and fundamentally disagree with the seeming obsession with GVA per capita, which implies that anyone who does not have a highly paid job is a burden to be minimised. Sometimes the competitive and global markets we operate in mean that important jobs can end up being low paid. In other places the limits of GDP measures are finally being recognised this also needs to happen in Jersey and soon.

The issue of population and how we manage it longer term has been fudged by Government for far too long. I really hope in the next year our new Chief Minister is going to lead the community in a properly informed debate about the impacts of longer lives, the importance of economic diversity and of course how we deal with the ongoing housing shortage. Left much longer we will be back in pre-election campaigning when all we will get is populist and unworkable platitudes.”

The views expressed in this article are those of the author alone and not those of Bailiwick Express.