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For those who think 2020 has been a rough ride so far, welcome to the final quarter.
The year has a few months still to run – and they are months which will include (strap yourself in) a resurgence of covid, the long-long-long-awaited publication of a migration policy, a final decision on a new hospital site (er…probably), and agreement to get rid of ‘prior-year’ taxpayers.
Then, in a triumphant climax, the skeletal arms of Brexit will wrap themselves around us once more, as we discover, finally, how it will actually affect Jersey.
Like the resurrection of a nightmare we thought had long since departed, Brexit eases itself sinuously back onto its feet this week, dusts itself down, and reminds us that the pre-covid public enemy number one, still has the life for one last dance.
Pictured: This week will see the Government running a 'Beyond Brexit' virtual event
Where will Jersey be, when the music stops? We learnt last week that the UK was playing a rather fishy tune. In the new political world of bish-bosh-BoJo, what resonance will there be for the delicate and dusty cadences of constitutional convention? In a direct face-off with the UK government (our largest trading partner) are we really going dig our heels firmly into the dirt, and snarl – legally and politically - “this shall not pass!” We’ll see.
We already have a trading agreement with the French, and their ports are important conduits for our aqua-culture industry, and for a variety of goods – not everything comes from the north.
This week will see the UK walk away from the negotiating table…and then like a nervous tourist in a Moroccan bazaar, edge cagily back again, just to see if there’s a final, final, final price to be haggled.
In the state-sized game of ‘who blinks first,’ we’ll see if Jersey’s negotiators have the nous to nip in while the eyes of the big beasts are closed, and secure a position as beneficial as our current one of ‘neither out nor in…except when it suits us.’
Pictured: Jersey's External Relations Minister, Senator Ian Gorst.
If the Transition Period is to end with no deal at all, does Jersey have the latitude to make its own arrangements; or will it be dragged off the battlefield after the two larger armies have retreated from their empty and unsatisfactory stalemate?
The government has organised a ‘Beyond Brexit’ online event this week, which will presumably set the scene for the end-game to be played out over the final weeks of the year.
Those will be weeks when our ability to stay calm under pressure, adapt to a continually shifting picture, and process a relentless flow of new information will be tested in a way which we thought we had mastered earlier on in the year – only to find that it was just the precursor to the main event.
It will be a time for courage; and for Jersey to duck, dive and draw strength from the history which runs through us. Let the 2020 end-games begin.
