The data modelling firm at the centre of a political row built a tool to help the States create forecasts, but it wasn’t used as the basis for modelling GST, the Chief Minister has said.
However, questions still remain about the process followed to hire Dorey Financial Modelling, which was set up by Martyn Dorey, a vocal public supporter of GST and the brains behind a yet-to-materialise subsea tunnel to France, via Jersey.
Deputy Lindsay de Sausmarez, Policy and Resources (P&R) President, also didn’t answer our questions about why Dorey could legally see the underlying data, when elected deputies have been told it would be illegal for them to see it.
The firm found itself in the centre of a political storm, when Express uncovered documents showing that P&R had hired it to check the modelling for the latest tax reform proposals.
Off the back of our story, two separate readers contacted us with further information.
One flagged that the partner of deputy who is not on P&R was a director of the company, but when we checked this wasn’t in his official declaration of interest. (P&R later confirmed he had no involvement in picking Dorey, and the deputy has denied any wrongdoing)
Another highlighted that Dorey had been hired in 2016 to create a tool called the ‘Guernsey Economic Model’ (GEM).
Deputy de Sausmarez confirmed to Express that GEM was not “used in the modelling underpinning the latest tax policy letter”.
However, while she maintained that the firm had the “experience, security measures and legal authorisations to access the underlying data”, she didn’t explain how the decision to hire Dorey was made, or whether any other firms were considered.
She also didn’t answer our questions about why a private firm could be given the “legal authorisations to access the underlying data”, when we were previously told it would be illegal for elected People’s Deputies to see the data.
What did we ask – and was it answered?
We put eight questions to P&R.
Here’s what the committee’s president said – and what she didn’t.
- Was GEM used to model the tax reforms and GST?
Was GEM used in producing the modelling underpinning the latest tax policy letter? If so, which elements of the modelling rely on GEM?
✅ Answered. Deputy de Sausmarez gave a very clear “no”, although GEM was used as a “tool”, the models for P&R’s latest tax reforms, including GST, were created by the States. - What methodology underpins GEM?
What methodology underpins GEM? Is it a proprietary methodology developed by Mr Dorey/Dorey Financial Modelling, or is it based on an established modelling methodology also used by other organisations?
❌ Not answered. Deputy de Sausmarez described GEM as a “statistical tool”, but she didn’t tell us anything about the methodology underpinning it. So we don’t know if it’s a well-established model used by other governments and economists, or something Dorey developed. - Does Dorey own GEM?
Is GEM itself proprietary or open source? Who owns the intellectual property in the model and its underlying methodology?
❌ Not answered. - Will Dorey have access to the modelling data?
Has Martyn Dorey or Dorey Financial Modelling had access to the underlying data or outputs from GEM used in the current tax modelling? Will they have access to that data and/or those outputs as part of the validation exercise?
🟠 Partly answered. Deputy de Sausmarez appeared to confirm Dorey will have access to the underlying data for the technical validation, because she said it has the necessary security measures and legal authorisations. But she does not specifically say what data or outputs they will have access to, or whether Dorey has already accessed any of it. - If they’ve got access, what controls are there?
If Dorey Financial Modelling will have access to data or outputs generated using GEM, what arrangements are in place governing that access and ensuring the independence of the validation?
❌ Not answered. - Why can Dorey see the data when deputies and journalists can’t?
Given P&R has previously refused access to the modelling on the grounds it contains sensitive personal data to both deputies and the media, what legal justification is there for sharing the data with a private company?
❌ Not answered. Deputy de Sausmarez claimed Dorey has the “legal authorisations to access the underlying data (as legally sworn in census officers)”, however she doesn’t explain what the legal justifications are and why deputies and the media couldn’t legally be given access. - How did you pick Dorey?
What procurement process was used to appoint Dorey Financial Modelling? Were other firms considered or invited to undertake the work?
❌ Not answered. Deputy de Sausmarez said Dorey had the experience, security measures and legal authorisations to access the data, and could carry out the work within the “tight timeframe required”. However, she didn’t explain how Dorey was selected or whether other firms were considered. - How much is this costing?
What is the cost of the external validation?
❌ Not answered.
Deputy de Sausmarez’s statement
“No, GEM has not been used in the modelling underpinning the latest tax policy letter.
“GEM is a statistical tool which provides forecasts of the population from Rolling Economic Census data, in a form that allows officers to run projections using differing core assumptions. The system also has a facility to compile projections of GDP. Dorey Financial Modelling’s role is limited to providing the statistical tool. They have no input into or influence on any policy development.
“GEM has not been used in the creation of revenue estimates for tax reform. The tax reform modelling was built internally using a bottom-up approach, allowing maximum flexibility to test a wide variety of potential models through the policy development process.
“This is an important distinction: Dorey Financial Modelling developed the tool, but we add our data to get, for example, population and GDP projections. We built our own modelling internally for tax reform and DFM has simply been asked to check the maths. DFM has had no policy input whatsoever.
“Regarding the procurement of Dorey Financial Modelling for this specific task of checking our maths, it has the experience, security measures and legal authorisations to access the underlying data (as legally sworn in census officers) to enable it to carry out a technical validation of the modelling within the tight timeframe required for this exercise.”
